Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $71,937 on Monday, April 13, 2026, up 1.65% on the day after
recovering from a Sunday plunge to $70,741 triggered by President Trump’s order
to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of US-Iran peace talks.
The Monday
bounce reverses the sharpest single-session drop in two weeks, but BTC still
sits 43% below the October 6, 2025 all-time high of $126,198. WTI crude has
surged past $104 a barrel, March CPI printed at 3.3% (the highest reading since
May 2024), and the Federal Reserve is holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The next 48
hours hinge on whether $6 billion in clustered shorts above the market force a
squeeze, or whether the macro stack drags BTC back toward $70,000. In this
article I examine why Bitcoin price is going up, looking at BTC/USDT chart and
checking the most up to date BTC price predictions.
Follow
me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk
Why Is Bitcoin Surging
Today? BTC Reclaims $72,000
The
geopolitical shock is the dominant variable. President Trump ordered a US naval
blockade of vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian ports on
Sunday, April 12, after weekend peace talks collapsed. The reaction in oil was
immediate and severe: WTI cleared $104 a barrel, a roughly 70% gain since
January.
Adam
Saville-Brown, Head of Commercial at Tesseract Group, frames the setup as an
asymmetric risk profile rather than a directional call. “Bitcoin defended
$70,000 this morning despite one of the sharpest geopolitical energy shocks in
recent memory,” he said. Saville-Brown points to roughly $6 billion in
leveraged shorts clustered between $72,200 and $73,500 as the structural
fragility in the tape. “In a range-bound market, that is not bearish
conviction; it is fragility,” he added.
Oliver
Carding, Head of Marketing at Tesseract Group, argues the original April bull
case has not reversed but has been overwhelmed. “ETF flows are still net
positive… but they are being overwhelmed by something else entirely,”
Carding said. He attributes the dislocation to a Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation
that hit 85% during the recent oil spikes, with the market currently pricing
geopolitical tail risk above adoption fundamentals.
The
drivers stacked into this morning’s tape:
- WTI crude above $104 per barrel, up
roughly 70% from January’s ~$61 - March CPI at 3.3%, the highest since May
2024, driven by a 10.9% monthly surge in energy - Federal Reserve holding at 3.50%–3.75% with
consensus pricing only one cut for 2026 - BTC-Nasdaq correlation at 85% during oil spikes,
suppressing the safe-haven bid - $6 billion in leveraged shorts stacked between $72,200 and
$73,500
Joel
Kruger, Crypto Strategist at LMAX, sees early evidence of a basing process.
“The crypto market is beginning to show signs of basing after several
months of sustained downside pressure,” Kruger said, flagging $76,000 in
BTC and $2,400 in ETH as the levels that would confirm a structural shift on a
sustained weekly close.
ETF Flows: BlackRock IBIT,
Morgan Stanley MSBT and the Institutional Bid
The
institutional bid has not disappeared, but it is no longer linear. Morgan
Stanley launched its own spot Bitcoin ETF, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust
(MSBT), on April 8 at a 0.14% fee, the lowest in the US market and 11 basis
points below BlackRock’s IBIT.
The
week’s flow data captures the tension between structural accumulation and
tactical de-risking:
- MSBT day-one inflows: $30.6 million, the strongest
first day for any Morgan Stanley ETF, with 430 BTC purchased - MSBT day-two inflows: $14.9 million, ranking the
launch in the top 1% of all ETF debuts of the past year - BlackRock IBIT YTD inflows: $1.5 billion despite BTC
falling from a 2026 peak near $97,000 to $72,100 - April 6 single-day total: $471 million across all spot
BTC ETFs, the strongest in over a month - MSBT debut day sector flows: $94 million in net outflows,
with only IBIT and MSBT positive - Distribution reach: Morgan Stanley’s 16,000
advisors manage roughly $6.2 trillion in client assets
As I wrote
in my April 2 analysis of JPMorgan’s
$240,000 long-term target, Q1 still absorbed $18.7 billion in net spot ETF inflows even as price
fell. The structural bid is real. The question is whether it can outweigh a Fed
on hold and oil at $104.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis: $62,500 to $75,000 Range Holds, 200 MA at $83,000 Is the Real Test
My chart
shows nothing has changed structurally. Bitcoin is in its second consecutive
month inside the same consolidation, at the lowest levels since November 2024.
The lower bound at roughly $62,500 was set by the February lows and retested in
early March. The upper bound near $75,000 was carved by the late-January lows
and retested in mid-March. Price currently holds above the 50 MA, which is the
only short-term positive on the daily timeframe.
|
Level |
Type |
Notes |
|
$62,500 |
Major support |
February |
|
$70,000 |
Psychological support |
Defended |
|
$75,000 |
Range resistance |
Late |
|
$80,000 |
Key resistance |
November |
|
$83,000 |
200 MA |
Separates |
|
$94,000–$96,000 |
Heavy resistance |
December 2025 / January 2026 highs |
|
$123,000 |
Final resistance |
July 2025 |
Bitcoin has
been below the 200 MA since November, which means the chart is formally in a
bearish structure. From the current $71,937, BTC is roughly 15% below the
moving average that would invalidate that bias. As I wrote in my March 24 analysis of the Bitcoin
crash and the same range, only a sustained close back above the 200 MA gives bulls a credible
attempt at the upper resistance ladder.
If $62,500
cracks on a daily close, my bear extension targets the $50,000–$52,000 August
2024 lows. If BTC can grind through $75,000 and then pierce $80,000, the path
opens toward $94,000–$96,000 and the $100,000 psychological level above that.
Why Bitcoin price is going up today? Source: Tradingview.com
Bitcoin Price Prediction:
How High Can BTC Go in 2026?
The
institutional forecast range remains extraordinarily wide. The
FinanceMagnates.com report from January detailed the $75,000 to $225,000 spread that
defined consensus at the start of the year. Three months of macro
pressure have not narrowed it.
|
Source |
Target |
Notes |
|
Tesseract Group (Saville-Brown) |
$75,000–$80,000 |
Near-term |
|
LMAX (Joel Kruger) |
$76,000 trigger |
Sustained |
|
Standard Chartered |
$150,000 |
End-2026; |
|
Bernstein |
$150,000 |
Late 2026; $200,000 by end-2027 |
|
Carol Alexander (Univ. Sussex) |
$75,000–$150,000 |
Center of |
|
JPMorgan |
$240,000–$266,000 |
Long-term |
|
Canary Capital (McClurg) |
$50,400 |
“Bear |
As the
FinanceMagnates.com report from December detailed, Standard Chartered cut its 2026 BTC
target to $150,000
from a previous $300,000, and Bernstein converged on the same figure. The bull
case from JPMorgan’s $240,000 Fibonacci extension and the bear case from Canary
Capital’s $50,000 cycle target now span almost a full 5x range.
Saville-Brown’s
tactical view captures the asymmetry. “Bitcoin does not need a new bull
case to rally. It just needs enough sustained spot demand to push the price
into that band,” he said, referring to the $72,200–$73,500 short cluster.
Bull case:
- $1.5B in YTD IBIT inflows and
the MSBT distribution channel through 16,000 advisors - $6 billion in shorts stacked
overhead create mechanical liquidation fuel - LMAX flags BTC outperforming
gold over the past month, suggesting early base - Any Hormuz de-escalation or oil
retreat below $90 restores the April bull thesis
Bear case:
- Fed on hold at 3.50%–3.75% with
only one cut priced for 2026 - CPI at 3.3% with energy doing
the heavy lifting; inflation sticky - 200 MA at $83,000 still ~15%
away; trend formally bearish since November - Sustained $105+ oil compresses
risk allocation across the entire cycle
Bitcoin Pirce Analysis, FAQ
Why is Bitcoin surging
today, April 13, 2026?
Bitcoin is
up 1.65% to $71,937 on Monday after Sunday’s drop to $70,741 on Trump’s Strait
of Hormuz blockade order. The bounce is technical: $6 billion in shorts
clustered at $72,200–$73,500 created upside fragility, and spot demand absorbed
enough Sunday selling to defend $70,000.
How high can Bitcoin go in
2026?
Institutional
2026 targets span $50,000 (Canary Capital) to $240,000 (JPMorgan Fibonacci
extension). Standard Chartered and Bernstein both project $150,000. Tesseract
Group sees a near-term squeeze to $75,000–$80,000. My technical view requires a
close above the 200 MA at $83,000 before any bull case is credible.
Where is Bitcoin’s key
support and resistance?
Range
support sits at $62,500 (February lows). Range resistance is $75,000
(late-January lows). The 200 MA at $83,000 is the line that separates the bear
trend from a bull trend. Above that, the next heavy zone is $94,000–$96,000.
What does the Strait of
Hormuz blockade mean for Bitcoin?
The
blockade has pushed WTI crude past $104 and reinforced March CPI at 3.3%, the
highest since May 2024. That keeps the Fed on hold at 3.50%–3.75%, tightening
systemic liquidity. Bitcoin trades with an 85% Nasdaq correlation during oil
spikes, which suppresses the safe-haven bid and ties price to risk-asset flows.
Are Bitcoin ETFs still
attracting institutional money?
Yes, but
unevenly. BlackRock’s IBIT has pulled in $1.5 billion year-to-date. Morgan
Stanley’s MSBT debuted on April 8 with $30.6 million in day-one inflows at a
0.14% fee, the lowest in the market. The April 6 sector total hit $471 million
in a single day, the strongest in over a month, though MSBT’s debut day saw $94
million in net sector outflows.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $71,937 on Monday, April 13, 2026, up 1.65% on the day after
recovering from a Sunday plunge to $70,741 triggered by President Trump’s order
to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of US-Iran peace talks.
The Monday
bounce reverses the sharpest single-session drop in two weeks, but BTC still
sits 43% below the October 6, 2025 all-time high of $126,198. WTI crude has
surged past $104 a barrel, March CPI printed at 3.3% (the highest reading since
May 2024), and the Federal Reserve is holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The next 48
hours hinge on whether $6 billion in clustered shorts above the market force a
squeeze, or whether the macro stack drags BTC back toward $70,000. In this
article I examine why Bitcoin price is going up, looking at BTC/USDT chart and
checking the most up to date BTC price predictions.
Follow
me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk
Why Is Bitcoin Surging
Today? BTC Reclaims $72,000
The
geopolitical shock is the dominant variable. President Trump ordered a US naval
blockade of vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian ports on
Sunday, April 12, after weekend peace talks collapsed. The reaction in oil was
immediate and severe: WTI cleared $104 a barrel, a roughly 70% gain since
January.
Adam
Saville-Brown, Head of Commercial at Tesseract Group, frames the setup as an
asymmetric risk profile rather than a directional call. “Bitcoin defended
$70,000 this morning despite one of the sharpest geopolitical energy shocks in
recent memory,” he said. Saville-Brown points to roughly $6 billion in
leveraged shorts clustered between $72,200 and $73,500 as the structural
fragility in the tape. “In a range-bound market, that is not bearish
conviction; it is fragility,” he added.
Oliver
Carding, Head of Marketing at Tesseract Group, argues the original April bull
case has not reversed but has been overwhelmed. “ETF flows are still net
positive… but they are being overwhelmed by something else entirely,”
Carding said. He attributes the dislocation to a Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation
that hit 85% during the recent oil spikes, with the market currently pricing
geopolitical tail risk above adoption fundamentals.
The
drivers stacked into this morning’s tape:
- WTI crude above $104 per barrel, up
roughly 70% from January’s ~$61 - March CPI at 3.3%, the highest since May
2024, driven by a 10.9% monthly surge in energy - Federal Reserve holding at 3.50%–3.75% with
consensus pricing only one cut for 2026 - BTC-Nasdaq correlation at 85% during oil spikes,
suppressing the safe-haven bid - $6 billion in leveraged shorts stacked between $72,200 and
$73,500
Joel
Kruger, Crypto Strategist at LMAX, sees early evidence of a basing process.
“The crypto market is beginning to show signs of basing after several
months of sustained downside pressure,” Kruger said, flagging $76,000 in
BTC and $2,400 in ETH as the levels that would confirm a structural shift on a
sustained weekly close.
ETF Flows: BlackRock IBIT,
Morgan Stanley MSBT and the Institutional Bid
The
institutional bid has not disappeared, but it is no longer linear. Morgan
Stanley launched its own spot Bitcoin ETF, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust
(MSBT), on April 8 at a 0.14% fee, the lowest in the US market and 11 basis
points below BlackRock’s IBIT.
The
week’s flow data captures the tension between structural accumulation and
tactical de-risking:
- MSBT day-one inflows: $30.6 million, the strongest
first day for any Morgan Stanley ETF, with 430 BTC purchased - MSBT day-two inflows: $14.9 million, ranking the
launch in the top 1% of all ETF debuts of the past year - BlackRock IBIT YTD inflows: $1.5 billion despite BTC
falling from a 2026 peak near $97,000 to $72,100 - April 6 single-day total: $471 million across all spot
BTC ETFs, the strongest in over a month - MSBT debut day sector flows: $94 million in net outflows,
with only IBIT and MSBT positive - Distribution reach: Morgan Stanley’s 16,000
advisors manage roughly $6.2 trillion in client assets
As I wrote
in my April 2 analysis of JPMorgan’s
$240,000 long-term target, Q1 still absorbed $18.7 billion in net spot ETF inflows even as price
fell. The structural bid is real. The question is whether it can outweigh a Fed
on hold and oil at $104.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis: $62,500 to $75,000 Range Holds, 200 MA at $83,000 Is the Real Test
My chart
shows nothing has changed structurally. Bitcoin is in its second consecutive
month inside the same consolidation, at the lowest levels since November 2024.
The lower bound at roughly $62,500 was set by the February lows and retested in
early March. The upper bound near $75,000 was carved by the late-January lows
and retested in mid-March. Price currently holds above the 50 MA, which is the
only short-term positive on the daily timeframe.
|
Level |
Type |
Notes |
|
$62,500 |
Major support |
February |
|
$70,000 |
Psychological support |
Defended |
|
$75,000 |
Range resistance |
Late |
|
$80,000 |
Key resistance |
November |
|
$83,000 |
200 MA |
Separates |
|
$94,000–$96,000 |
Heavy resistance |
December 2025 / January 2026 highs |
|
$123,000 |
Final resistance |
July 2025 |
Bitcoin has
been below the 200 MA since November, which means the chart is formally in a
bearish structure. From the current $71,937, BTC is roughly 15% below the
moving average that would invalidate that bias. As I wrote in my March 24 analysis of the Bitcoin
crash and the same range, only a sustained close back above the 200 MA gives bulls a credible
attempt at the upper resistance ladder.
If $62,500
cracks on a daily close, my bear extension targets the $50,000–$52,000 August
2024 lows. If BTC can grind through $75,000 and then pierce $80,000, the path
opens toward $94,000–$96,000 and the $100,000 psychological level above that.
Why Bitcoin price is going up today? Source: Tradingview.com
Bitcoin Price Prediction:
How High Can BTC Go in 2026?
The
institutional forecast range remains extraordinarily wide. The
FinanceMagnates.com report from January detailed the $75,000 to $225,000 spread that
defined consensus at the start of the year. Three months of macro
pressure have not narrowed it.
|
Source |
Target |
Notes |
|
Tesseract Group (Saville-Brown) |
$75,000–$80,000 |
Near-term |
|
LMAX (Joel Kruger) |
$76,000 trigger |
Sustained |
|
Standard Chartered |
$150,000 |
End-2026; |
|
Bernstein |
$150,000 |
Late 2026; $200,000 by end-2027 |
|
Carol Alexander (Univ. Sussex) |
$75,000–$150,000 |
Center of |
|
JPMorgan |
$240,000–$266,000 |
Long-term |
|
Canary Capital (McClurg) |
$50,400 |
“Bear |
As the
FinanceMagnates.com report from December detailed, Standard Chartered cut its 2026 BTC
target to $150,000
from a previous $300,000, and Bernstein converged on the same figure. The bull
case from JPMorgan’s $240,000 Fibonacci extension and the bear case from Canary
Capital’s $50,000 cycle target now span almost a full 5x range.
Saville-Brown’s
tactical view captures the asymmetry. “Bitcoin does not need a new bull
case to rally. It just needs enough sustained spot demand to push the price
into that band,” he said, referring to the $72,200–$73,500 short cluster.
Bull case:
- $1.5B in YTD IBIT inflows and
the MSBT distribution channel through 16,000 advisors - $6 billion in shorts stacked
overhead create mechanical liquidation fuel - LMAX flags BTC outperforming
gold over the past month, suggesting early base - Any Hormuz de-escalation or oil
retreat below $90 restores the April bull thesis
Bear case:
- Fed on hold at 3.50%–3.75% with
only one cut priced for 2026 - CPI at 3.3% with energy doing
the heavy lifting; inflation sticky - 200 MA at $83,000 still ~15%
away; trend formally bearish since November - Sustained $105+ oil compresses
risk allocation across the entire cycle
Bitcoin Pirce Analysis, FAQ
Why is Bitcoin surging
today, April 13, 2026?
Bitcoin is
up 1.65% to $71,937 on Monday after Sunday’s drop to $70,741 on Trump’s Strait
of Hormuz blockade order. The bounce is technical: $6 billion in shorts
clustered at $72,200–$73,500 created upside fragility, and spot demand absorbed
enough Sunday selling to defend $70,000.
How high can Bitcoin go in
2026?
Institutional
2026 targets span $50,000 (Canary Capital) to $240,000 (JPMorgan Fibonacci
extension). Standard Chartered and Bernstein both project $150,000. Tesseract
Group sees a near-term squeeze to $75,000–$80,000. My technical view requires a
close above the 200 MA at $83,000 before any bull case is credible.
Where is Bitcoin’s key
support and resistance?
Range
support sits at $62,500 (February lows). Range resistance is $75,000
(late-January lows). The 200 MA at $83,000 is the line that separates the bear
trend from a bull trend. Above that, the next heavy zone is $94,000–$96,000.
What does the Strait of
Hormuz blockade mean for Bitcoin?
The
blockade has pushed WTI crude past $104 and reinforced March CPI at 3.3%, the
highest since May 2024. That keeps the Fed on hold at 3.50%–3.75%, tightening
systemic liquidity. Bitcoin trades with an 85% Nasdaq correlation during oil
spikes, which suppresses the safe-haven bid and ties price to risk-asset flows.
Are Bitcoin ETFs still
attracting institutional money?
Yes, but
unevenly. BlackRock’s IBIT has pulled in $1.5 billion year-to-date. Morgan
Stanley’s MSBT debuted on April 8 with $30.6 million in day-one inflows at a
0.14% fee, the lowest in the market. The April 6 sector total hit $471 million
in a single day, the strongest in over a month, though MSBT’s debut day saw $94
million in net sector outflows.
