Traders work after a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The S&P 500 rose slightly on Thursday as investors amid growing optimism among investors that the U.S. and Iran may reach a deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
The broad market index traded up 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite traded around the flatline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 90 points, or 0.2%.
Equities received a boost after Reuters, citing sources, reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are considering a deal that would bring a phased end to the conflict in the Middle East, whereby Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. would lift its economic blockade on Tehran.
Oil prices were higher following the news, but gains were limited. International Brent crude futures rose 2% to around $105 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2% to around $94.
Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury bond yield touched 5.446%, a level not seen since June 2004. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, which is tied to rates on mortgages, surged to 5.15%, near levels not reached since July 2007. The 2-year note yield was flat on the day, but scaled to a 2023 high earlier in the week.
As yields surged, so did the market’s anticipation of further rate hikes from central bank policymakers. Fed funds futures trading suggests a 66% likelihood that the Federal Reserve lifts its key rate once more in October, per the CME FedWatch tool. That compares to a roughly 55% probability just a week ago.
Higher bond yields tend to squeeze consumers’ finances as they face higher borrowing costs at a time when they’re already paying more in fuel costs.
Yet, Wednesday’s readings from S&P Global’s manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes suggested that U.S. businesses are continuing to boom.
“The economy continues to show remarkable resilience, but that strength is keeping inflation concerns alive and pushing interest rates higher,” said Jason Stephens, founder of Evertern Wealth. “The bond market may be the most important market to watch right now.”
The bigger issue, according to Stephens, is not whether the Fed raises interest rates again but rather “how long rates remain elevated and what a 10 year Treasury above 5% eventually does to housing, corporate borrowing, private markets, and equity valuations.”
The founder also said that energy is “one of the biggest swing factors,” as any quick move in oil in response to developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East “feeds directly into the inflation and interest rate conversation.”
Ultimately, markets is experiencing an “interesting contradiction” at present, he said. “Investors are worried about rates because the economic data are strong, not because the economy is falling apart.”
Oracle was a key laggard Thursday. The stock more than 3% after Bloomberg News reported, citing sources, that the company was citing force majeure in order to protect itself from a data center project being built in New Mexico if it is delayed.
Stocks making big moves: Charles River Laboratories, Nebius Group, Oracle
Here are some of the companies making headlines in midday trading:
- Charles River Laboratories — The contract research company jumped 5%. Charles River reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, calling for revenue and adjusted earnings per share to land at the upper end of its earlier ranges.
- Nebius Group — Shares advanced more than 6% after Bank of America lifted its expectations for revenue in 2026, 2027 and 2028. “Nebius uses long-duration hyperscaler contracts to establish a stable utilization base while reserving a portion of capacity for 1-3 year contracts priced at roughly 2x hyperscaler rates,” analyst Tal Liani said in a Thursday report. “Higher revenues drive expanding margins.” The firm reiterated its buy rating and its price target of $310.
- Oracle — Shares of the enterprise software giant slid 4% after news that Oracle sent a “force majeure” notice related to a New Mexico data center project, a move that seemingly attempts to protect the company from higher costs. “Project Jupiter remains on our planned schedule,” an Oracle said in a statement to CNBC. “We are fully committed to New Mexico and confident in our path forward.” Bloomberg first reported the news, citing sources familiar with the matter.
Read here for the full list.
— Darla Mercado
‘Modest’ rate moves likely ahead, Philadelphia Fed’s Anna Paulson says
Anna Paulson, President and CEO of Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Aug. 4th, 2026.
CNBC
Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson said Thursday that she and her colleagues may need to raise interest rates further to bring inflation back to target.
Speaking a week after the Federal Open Market Committee raised benchmark borrowing rates by a quarter percentage point, Paulson said inflation trends are still worrying.
The rate hike, which took the key funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%, “brings policy closer to what I believe is needed to return inflation to 2% at a pace that balances inflation with risks to the labor market. Looking ahead, if conditions evolve as I expect, some modest further tightening may be warranted.”
Read more here.
— Jeff Cox
Meta’s Muse is a partner, rather than a disruptor to agentic commerce players like Shopify, Loop says
Thomas Fuller | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Loop Capital said the market is “misreading” Meta‘s announcements on its new personal AI agent, Muse, as a disrupter of online shopping giant, Shopify.
While AI agents can help automate purchases, they will still need Shopify’s ecosystem for things like product catalogs, checkout infrastructure and other integrations. This means that Shopify remains a “critical infrastructure layer for ecommerce,” said analyst Dominick Gabriele in a Thursday note to clients.
The analyst explained that by using Shopify’s products, Meta is “relying rather than replacing” its merchant infrastructure. Over time, Loop believes Meta Muse and other AI agents will partner with rather than displace other similar players in agentic commerce.
The firm maintains its hold rating on Shopify and its price target of $150 per share.
— Paulina Likos
Stocks fall on Thursday
The three major averages moved down on Thursday morning.
The Nasdaq Composite declined 0.8% shortly after 9:30 a.m. ET, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 182 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 declined 0.5%.
— Sean Conlon
Oracle cites ‘force majeure’ on New Mexico data center project, report says
The logo of the software and hardware manufacturer Oracle can be seen at the company’s German headquarters in Munich on Sept. 25, 2023.
Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Hyperscaler Oracle is trying to get out of making payments for a data center being built in New Mexico, using a legal protection known as “force majeure,” if the project gets delayed, according to Bloomberg, citing sources.
Oracle sent the developer of the project, a unit of Blue Owl Capital, a letter citing a force majeure clause, though the company is not trying to leave the project entirely, Bloomberg reported.
An Oracle spokesperson quoted in the story said the construction project “remains on our planned schedule.”
— Tobias Burns
Trump, Xi expected to talk Taiwan, AI, trade and Iran in upcoming meeting
US President Donald Trump (R) shakes hands with China’s President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.
Kenny Holston | Afp | Getty Images
President Donald Trump and Chinese Leader Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the White House on Thursday for high-stakes talks about trade, artificial intelligence and the Iran war — in between displays of military fanfare and a lavish banquet.
While China analysts broadly predict the leaders’ personal relationship and policy goals will result in a cautious summit that yields few major deliverables, their latest face-to-face nevertheless carries real geopolitical risk.
Read the full story here.
— Kevin Breuninger
Darden Restaurants, MGM Resorts International and BlackBerry among the stocks making moves before the bell
Check out the companies making the biggest moves in premarket trading:
- Darden Restaurants — The parent of Olive Garden and LongHorn shed 6.6% on the back of its fiscal first-quarter results. Darden’s earnings of $2.05 per share were in line with estimates, while revenue of $3.20 billion was just shy of the $3.21 billion expected from analysts polled by FactSet. The company also reaffirmed its full-year guidance.
- MGM Resorts International — Shares tumbled more than 9% after Barry Diller’s People withdrew its proposal to buy the casino giant. Diller said, “We didn’t feel the mix was coming together in the way we had hoped,” but expressed his faith in the company, in which he still holds 66.8 million shares.
- BlackBerry — The Canadian software and services company added 2% following its second-quarter results. BlackBerry reported adjusted earnings of 7 cents per share, topping the 4 cents expected from analysts polled by FactSet. Revenue was $163.3 million, compared to the $142.5 million consensus estimate.
Read the full list here.
— Michelle Fox
30-year Treasury yield climbs to 2004 high
The 30-year Treasury bond yield traded more than 3 basis points higher at 5.435%, reaching levels not seen since 2004. Several factors drove the Treasury sell-off, including stronger-than-expected U.S. economic activity, hawkish commentary from a Federal Reserve official, and high oil prices.
30-year yield hits 2004 high
Fed’s Williams: ‘Reasonable’ to expect another rate hike by year-end
John Williams, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks during an Economic Club of New York (ECNY) event in New York, US, on Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025.
David Dee Delgado | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Investor belief that another Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year may be warranted is a “reasonable way of thinking about it,” New York Fed Chair John Williams said Thursday.
“But we have to see. We’re going to collect the data and do what we did between July and September,” he said at the London Macro Policy Forum, according to Reuters.
— Jenni Reid
Switzerland keeps interest rates at 0%
Interlaken, Switzerland
Laphon Pinta | Moment | Getty Images
Switzerland’s central bank kept its key interest rate at 0% on Thursday, defying the tightening cycle that has begun among many of its major peers.
But market watchers say it’s only a matter of time before it’s forced into raising rates.
The unique Swiss economy has kept it somewhat insulated from the inflationary surge seen in neighboring nations and economic peers. In August, Switzerland’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 0.8%, pushed higher due to rising gasoline, diesel and heating oil costs — but it’s a far cry from levels seen in the U.S., U.K. and euro zone.
Their respective central banks have inflation targets of 2%, while the SNB’s objective is to keep inflation between 0% and 2%.
The Swiss National Bank is widely expected to eventually embark on its own hiking cycle, with traders pricing odds of a hike versus a hold at close to 50-50 in December — and more than a 90% chance the SNB will begin hiking by early 2027.
— Chloe Taylor
Global debt tops $365 trillion as economists sound alarm over ‘vicious cycle’
Ever-higher costs to service mounting debt loads pose a major risk to governments around the world, economists have warned.
Global debt rose by $10 trillion in the first half of the year to top $365 trillion, according to research published by the Institute of International Finance on Wednesday.
The IIF highlighted the four major economies in particular as facing “persistently large deficits and rising interest expenses — challenges long associated with debt-distressed emerging market sovereigns.”
Read more here.
— Jenni Reid
Japan’s Nikkei rises 0.8%, Mainland China’s CSI 300 falls 1.7%
Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 0.76% higher at 65,513.99, while Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.72% to 8,702.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 0.29% in the last hour of trade on Thursday, while mainland China’s CSI 300 closed 1.73% lower at 4,439.14.
South Korea’s markets were closed for a holiday.
—Justina Lee
European stocks fall as oil prices tick higher
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was 0.1% lower in early trading on Thursday, as global investors continued to monitor the oil market.
Regional oil and gas stocks bucked the trend, moving higher as Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate oil futures rose by around 0.4%.
Front-month Brent futures were last seen trading at $103.36 a barrel, while WTI was at $92.45 per barrel.
— Chloe Taylor
U.S.-China trade truce extended for two months
The U.S. and China have extended a truce to keep tariffs lower for longer and rare earths flowing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday local time.
He was speaking on Fox News, as Chinese President Xi Jinping landed in Washington, D.C. for a state visit through Friday.
Xi and Trump agreed to a one-year trade truce at a meeting in South Korea last October. The deal, which was set to expire in November, will now be extended to Jan. 10, Bessent said. He added that Beijing needs to fulfill more deliverables.
Read more here.
— Evelyn Cheng
SoftBank shares jump over 7% after $11.1 billion bond issuance to fund OpenAI bet
Pedestrians walk past signage outside the building where the SoftBank Group headquarters is located in Tokyo on Nov. 11, 2025.
Kazuhiro Nogi | AFP | Getty Images
Shares of SoftBank Group jumped more than 7% on Thursday, as Japanese markets opened for the first time this week following a three-day holiday and the technology investor announced an $11.1 billion bond issuance to help fund its growing bet on OpenAI.
SoftBank said Thursday it issued $10 billion in dollar-denominated senior notes and 1 billion euros ($1.14 billion) in euro-denominated notes. The company said proceeds will be used to fund a $10 billion payment for the third and final tranche of its $30 billion follow-on investment in OpenAI, which is expected to close Oct. 1, as well as for general corporate purposes.
—Jenny Lee
Japan’s 10-year bond yield hits 30-year high following sell-off in Treasurys
Japanese 10-year government bond yield rose to a 30-year high on Thursday, following a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, while concerns about inflationary pressures were exacerbated by a weaker yen.
The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 8 basis points to 3.062%, the highest since August 1996. The 30-year yield rose nearly 8 bps to 4.147%.
The rise in Japanese bond yields tracked higher U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield surging to a 19-year high.
“The sell-off was driven by rebounding oil prices, stronger-than-expected US PMI data, and weak demand at a US$70 billion 5-year Treasury auction, which pushed 5-year yields above 5%,” UOB said in a note.
—Justina Lee
Oil falls on report Asia will import highest volume of crude since start of Iran war
An oil tanker unloads imported crude oil at the crude oil terminal of Qingdao Port in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China, on August 13, 2026.
Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Oil fell Thursday, as traders assess a report that Asia is on track to import its highest volume of crude oil since the start of the US-Iran war while keeping watch on developments in the Middle East.
Futures for international benchmark Brent crude for November delivery declined 0.52% at $102.54 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for November dropped 0.34% at $91.85 per barrel.
Asia’s imports of crude oil rose in September to the highest level since the start of the Iran war, Reuters reported. The region is on track to import 23.96 million barrels per day in September, up from 23.38 million bpd in August and the most since February, Reuters said, citing data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.
—Justina Lee
Mainland China and Hong Kong shares open mixed
Mainland China and Hong Kong shares opened mixed, as investors watch for developments relating to the Xi-Trump meeting which would offer clues to the trade outlook of the U.S. and China.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 0.36%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was flat.
—Justina Lee
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed amid Mideast tensions, Xi-Trump meeting
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed early Thursday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.64% following three consecutive days of holiday, while the Topix slipped 0.17%.
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was 1.33% lower.
South Korea’s markets are closed for a holiday.
—Justina Lee
Japan’s Nikkei 225 set to open higher following holidays
Asia-Pacific markets were set to open mixed Thursday, as investors continue to keep watch on developments relating to the Xi-Trump meeting this week which would offer clues to the trade outlook between the U.S. and China.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was poised to gain following three consecutive days of holiday. The Chicago futures contract was at 66,060 and its Osaka counterpart last trading at 65,940, compared with the index’s previous close of 65,018.95 last Friday.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures were at 24,709, compared with the index’s last close of 24,834.12.
Futures for Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 last traded at 8,706, while the index closed at 8,765.30.
Meanwhile, tensions continue to simmer between the U.S. and Iran, after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian blamed the U.S. and Israel for stoking global instability. “The United States president described us as terrorists. We have been the victims of terrorism,” according to a live translation of Pezeshkian’s speech at United Nations General Assembly. Pezeshkian also asserted that his country will continue to fight back “until our last breath.”
—Justina Lee
Costco and BlackBerry set to report earnings
Branded Costco Wholesale refrigerated logistics trailers sit parked behind a concrete retaining wall at a Costco warehouse facility in Saratoga Springs, Utah, United States, on September 8, 2026.
Charles-McClintock Wilson | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Costco and BlackBerry, are set to report earnings on Thursday.
Analysts polled by FactSet expect Costco will report $94.86 billion in revenue and $6.53 in earnings per share for the fourth quarter. The big-box retailer is expected to report after the bell. For the third-quarter, Costco beat Wall Street consensus on revenue, noting “record-breaking volumes” for gas.
BlackBerry, slated to report on Thursday morning, is expected to post $142.5 million in revenue. That’s in line with the software provider’s guidance, which is between $137 million and $148 million. The company is expected to earn 4 cents per share.
— Ananya Chetia
Stock futures open flat on Wednesday evening
U.S. equity futures opened little changed on Wednesday at 6 p.m. in New York.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 advanced 0.06%, while the Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.1%. Dow futures inched up 21 points, or 0.04%.
—Darla Mercado
