Holiday sales are expected to grow this year, even as consumers say they plan to spend less, according to the many holiday shopping forecasts published in the past two months.
Both of these seemingly contradictory predictions may turn out to be true.
Higher prices are doing some of the work in the retail forecasts. Shoppers are also protecting spending on gifts while cutting back elsewhere, and ecommerce continues to grow faster than retail overall. So retailers could have a pretty good season in dollar terms without consumers buying much more stuff.
The forecasts vary, partly because they measure different things and cover different periods. Adobe expects U.S. online holiday sales to reach $275.1 billion in November and December, up 6.7% from last year. AlixPartners expects overall holiday retail sales to grow between 4% and 7%.
The more revealing numbers are underneath the topline forecasts. AlixPartners expects consumers to buy fewer units and trade down where they can. PwC expects gift spending to decline 2%, even as consumers continue to protect holiday traditions.
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More dollars don’t necessarily mean more purchases
The consumer surveys are much gloomier than the sales forecasts.
Sprout Social found 56% of consumers plan to reduce holiday spending because of economic conditions, while 69% are concerned about tariff-related price increases.
PwC found a similar strain. Eight in 10 consumers plan to use a budgeting strategy, and 79% say deals and discounts affect when they shop. Millennials expect to cut gift spending 10%, while Gen Z expects to cut it 9%.
Omnisend finds 78% of consumers feel the weight of price increases, prompting many to set firm spending limits. And AlixPartners reports that 57% of consumers feel the economy is worse than a year ago, with 37% intending to cut back by buying fewer units overall.
PwC, which expects average gift spending of $708, down modestly from last year. Expected travel spending falls much more sharply, dropping 24% from $553 to $419 per consumer. Millennials expect to cut travel spending 37%, while Gen Z expects a 29% reduction.
Accenture, on the other hand, found average planned holiday spending rising nearly 12%, to $737. But that’s because, among consumers who expect to spend the same or more, 53% said higher prices were a reason.
The Penny Hoarder found an average anticipated spend of $818. Thirty-four percent of consumers expect to spend more than last year, 30% expect to spend less, and the rest expect little change. Inflation shows up on both sides: 42% of those spending more say they’re paying more just to maintain last year’s holiday, while 42% of those spending less say inflation is forcing them to cut their budgets. Furthermore, 43% of those surveyed said they used emergency funds to cover holiday spending
So some of the growth retailers see at the register will simply reflect higher prices.
Consumers are finding other ways to compensate. They’re buying fewer items, switching products or brands, looking harder for discounts, and spreading purchases over a longer period. Adobe expects BNPL financing to generate $21.3 billion in online holiday spending (up 6.6% YoY).
Omnisend found 38% of U.S. consumers expect to spend less than last year, with many shifting money toward necessities. Likewise, Adobe predicts that shoppers will use peak-discount events to buy everyday essentials rather than just gifts. Cyber Week sales compared to September levels are projected to jump 210% for clothing basics, 150% for personal hygiene products, 113% for baby items, 93% for pet products, and 49% for household cleaning supplies.
Consumers aren’t pulling back equally across their budgets. Gifts appear to be relatively protected. Travel isn’t.
Even within the gift budget, priorities differ. Consumers are much more willing to cut gifts for adults and themselves than gifts for children. According to The Penny Hoarder, 46% of parents consider presents for their kids to be essential, no matter the price tag.
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Black Friday starts well before Black Friday
Consumers still plan to spend heavily around Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Adobe expects Cyber Week to generate $47.5 billion online, up 7.4% from last year. Cyber Monday alone is expected to top $15 billion.
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But shoppers aren’t waiting until Thanksgiving week to decide what they want.
Nearly half of consumers plan to begin researching holiday purchases near the end of October, according to research cited by eMarketer. About 30% say they compare more retailers than they did two or three years ago, while 27% spend more time researching products before buying.
Adobe expects $95.8 billion in online spending during October, up 8%, helped by the October Prime Day event and competing retailer promotions.
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AI has a role, but it’s mostly helping people shop
AI is becoming part of that research process, although the numbers vary widely depending on how researchers ask the question.
PwC found 29% of consumers plan to use AI while holiday shopping, up from 22% last year. Among those shoppers, 75% use it for product research, 55% for price comparisons, and 25% for staying within a budget.
Adobe expects traffic from AI-powered chat and browser services to retail websites to jump 130% from last year’s holiday season.
Sprout Social found a smaller role when it asked where consumers go for gift ideas. Fifteen percent named AI chatbots, compared with 46% for social media and 46% for physical stores.
Those findings don’t necessarily conflict. AI can help someone compare two televisions or find a gift within a particular budget without becoming their primary shopping destination.
And most purchases still happen somewhere else. PwC found 64% of consumers who use AI for gift ideas leave the AI platform and visit a website to make the purchase. Only 4% expect to buy through an AI tool.
MarTech is owned by Semrush. We remain committed to providing high-quality coverage of marketing topics. Unless otherwise noted, this page’s content was written by either an employee or a paid contractor of Semrush Inc.
Constantine von Hoffman is senior editor of MarTech. A veteran journalist, Con has covered business, finance, marketing and tech for CBSNews.com, Brandweek, CMO, and Inc. He has been city editor of the Boston Herald, news producer at NPR, and has written for Harvard Business Review, Boston Magazine, Sierra, and many other publications. He has also been a professional stand-up comedian, given talks at anime and gaming conventions on everything from My Neighbor Totoro to the history of dice and boardgames, and is author of the magical realist novel John Henry the Revelator. He lives in Boston with his wife, Jennifer, and either too many or too few dogs.
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