The UAE had steadily increased production to around 3.6 million bpd. The UAE’s stated crude oil production capacity currently stands at 4.85 million bpd, with an official target to raise that to 5.0 million bpd by 2027 through continued upstream investment led by ADNOC.
Only the UAE and Saudi Arabia currently have pipelines around the Strait of Hormuz. Due to 2026 Hormuz tensions, ADNOC and the UAE are actively evaluating feasibility of a second parallel pipeline to Fujairah. This would potentially add another ~1.5 million bpd to the 1.8 million bpd of the current pipeline. These discussions date back to at least 2024, but as of April 2026 the project remains in the pre-FID (Final Investment Decision) stage. No construction has started. If the project is fast-tracked then a new large-diameter pipeline of this scale typically takes 2–4 years. Realistic earliest online date would therefore be 2028–2029.
UAE / ADNOC’s official target is 5 million bpd of sustainable crude production capacity by 2027 (brought forward from 2030). They are already very close at 4.85 million bpd capacity.
Some internal or long-term scenario discussions have referenced potential for 6 million bpd+ in the 2030s. From current OPEC+-constrained actual output (~3–3.4 million bpd) they could theoretically move toward full 5 million bpd capacity within a few months by activating idle wells, optimizing fields, and using existing infrastructure. The USA with the most oil production in the world could work the UAE as swing producers.
Iran will have to shutin wells soon and this will cause damage and reduced production. This could drop Iran from 3 million barrel per day potential down to 2 million bpd in some months after getting back online. It could take years to never to get back Iran production. The UAE could permanently fulfill the extra production needs.
Before tumbling last month to 2.2 million bpd, the UAE had steadily increased production to around 3.6 million bpd. The UAE’s stated crude oil production capacity currently stands at 4.85 million bpd, with an official target to raise that to 5.0 million bpd by 2027 through… pic.twitter.com/Qra7xzQfuG
— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) April 28, 2026
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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