Tuesday, 22/09/2026 | 21:50 GMT by
Tanya Chepkova
- Bernstein raised its 2026 volume forecast by 71% to $410 billion after strong activity during the first eight months.
- The long-term estimate assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of trading across broader financial markets.
Annual prediction-market volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035 as contracts linked to cryptocurrencies, equities and commodities take a larger share of trading, according to Bernstein.
London’s trading industry is coming home!
The research firm now expects about $410 billion in volume during 2026, raising its April forecast by approximately 71% after activity reached an estimated $300 billion in the first eight months of the year.
Bernstein projects roughly 70% compound annual growth from 2025, although that rate is lifted by the market’s relatively low starting point. From the 2026 estimate, reaching $10 trillion by 2035 would still require annual growth of approximately 43%.
THE BLOCK: Bernstein expects annual prediction market trading volumes to reach $10 trillion by 2035.
The firm forecasts $410 billion in 2026, with crypto, equities, and commodities projected to overtake sports and account for 49% of volumes by 2035. pic.twitter.com/aXFZjw72Me
— The Block (@TheBlockCo) September 22, 2026
Financial Contracts Could Become the Largest Category
Bernstein expects financial-asset contracts to increase their share of prediction-market volume from 12% in 2025 to 49% by 2035. Sports would fall from 61% to 38%, although the category could continue growing in absolute terms.
Contracts tied to cryptocurrencies, equities and commodities could account for about $4.7 trillion of the projected $10 trillion annual market.
That estimate assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of activity across the much larger markets for financial contracts, rather than extrapolating solely from current event-contract volumes. Trading data from 2026 provide some support for the shift.
Crypto’s share of Kalshi volume rose from below 5% in January to about 20% in August, helped by short-duration Bitcoin contracts. Sports nevertheless remained Polymarket’s largest category, accounting for approximately 52% of its global volume through August.
Cboe Tests Trading on Corporate Outcomes
Bernstein expects financial contracts to expand beyond products that track asset prices to markets based on corporate metrics such as production, deliveries or subscriber growth.
Cboe has already sought SEC approval for binary options tied to key performance indicators across 23 companies, as Finance Magnates reported.
The proposed contracts would cover measures such as revenue, product deliveries, segment sales and provisions for credit losses. Each contract would pay $1 if the reported KPI met a specified condition at expiry and zero if it did not.
Unlike Kalshi’s event contracts, the products would trade as securities options through Cboe’s exchange and clearing infrastructure. Current pre-launch materials identify Cboe Clear US as the intended central counterparty, subject to regulatory approval.
Bernstein’s forecast still depends partly on a category facing unresolved legal questions. The firm does not expect definitive clarity for US sports contracts before 2027 or 2028 because courts have reached conflicting conclusions over the boundary between federal derivatives oversight and state gambling regulation.
Annual prediction-market volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035 as contracts linked to cryptocurrencies, equities and commodities take a larger share of trading, according to Bernstein.
London’s trading industry is coming home!
The research firm now expects about $410 billion in volume during 2026, raising its April forecast by approximately 71% after activity reached an estimated $300 billion in the first eight months of the year.
Bernstein projects roughly 70% compound annual growth from 2025, although that rate is lifted by the market’s relatively low starting point. From the 2026 estimate, reaching $10 trillion by 2035 would still require annual growth of approximately 43%.
THE BLOCK: Bernstein expects annual prediction market trading volumes to reach $10 trillion by 2035.
The firm forecasts $410 billion in 2026, with crypto, equities, and commodities projected to overtake sports and account for 49% of volumes by 2035. pic.twitter.com/aXFZjw72Me
— The Block (@TheBlockCo) September 22, 2026
Financial Contracts Could Become the Largest Category
Bernstein expects financial-asset contracts to increase their share of prediction-market volume from 12% in 2025 to 49% by 2035. Sports would fall from 61% to 38%, although the category could continue growing in absolute terms.
Contracts tied to cryptocurrencies, equities and commodities could account for about $4.7 trillion of the projected $10 trillion annual market.
That estimate assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of activity across the much larger markets for financial contracts, rather than extrapolating solely from current event-contract volumes. Trading data from 2026 provide some support for the shift.
Crypto’s share of Kalshi volume rose from below 5% in January to about 20% in August, helped by short-duration Bitcoin contracts. Sports nevertheless remained Polymarket’s largest category, accounting for approximately 52% of its global volume through August.
Cboe Tests Trading on Corporate Outcomes
Bernstein expects financial contracts to expand beyond products that track asset prices to markets based on corporate metrics such as production, deliveries or subscriber growth.
Cboe has already sought SEC approval for binary options tied to key performance indicators across 23 companies, as Finance Magnates reported.
The proposed contracts would cover measures such as revenue, product deliveries, segment sales and provisions for credit losses. Each contract would pay $1 if the reported KPI met a specified condition at expiry and zero if it did not.
Unlike Kalshi’s event contracts, the products would trade as securities options through Cboe’s exchange and clearing infrastructure. Current pre-launch materials identify Cboe Clear US as the intended central counterparty, subject to regulatory approval.
Bernstein’s forecast still depends partly on a category facing unresolved legal questions. The firm does not expect definitive clarity for US sports contracts before 2027 or 2028 because courts have reached conflicting conclusions over the boundary between federal derivatives oversight and state gambling regulation.
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Tanya Chepkova is a News Editor at Finance Magnates with more than 16 years of experience in financial journalism, covering forex, crypto, and digital asset markets. Her work spans daily industry reporting and data-driven, long-form explainers focused on market structure, trading models, and regulatory shifts.
Before joining Finance Magnates, she led the editorial team of a cryptocurrency-focused media outlet for six years. Her reporting combines analytical depth with clear storytelling, with particular attention to how structural changes in trading, stablecoin infrastructure, and emerging products such as prediction markets reshape the broader financial ecosystem. She covers global developments and provides additional insight into CIS markets.
Areas of Coverage:
Crypto and digital asset markets
Prediction markets
Stablecoins and cross-border payments
Industry analysis and long-form explainers
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Today’s financial news recap covers FXCM’s UK arm holds $110 million in client money ahead of its sale to Trade Nation, Citadel Securities’ UK profit falls 38 per cent, and Kraken secures its final Dubai crypto licence.
Finance Magnates Daily Recap brings you the latest news from forex and CFD brokers, fintech, payments, cryptocurrency, digital assets, trading platforms, financial regulation and global markets.
Get the key company news, executive moves, deals, regulatory updates and market developments of the day, in just a few minutes. New episodes published every weekday.
Read more: https://www.financemagnates.com
#FinanceMagnates #ForexNews #FintechNews
Today’s financial news recap covers FXCM’s UK arm holds $110 million in client money ahead of its sale to Trade Nation, Citadel Securities’ UK profit falls 38 per cent, and Kraken secures its final Dubai crypto licence.Finance Magnates Daily Recap brings you the latest news from forex and CFD brokers, fintech, payments, cryptocurrency, digital assets, trading platforms, financial regulation and global markets.
Get the key company news, executive moves, deals, regulatory updates and market developments of the day, in just a few minutes. New episodes published every weekday.
Read more: https://www.financemagnates.com
#FinanceMagnates #ForexNews #FintechNews
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AvaTrade to Acquire Most of FXCM; NAGA Raises $8M
AvaTrade to Acquire Most of FXCM; NAGA Raises $8M
AvaTrade to Acquire Most of FXCM; NAGA Raises $8M
AvaTrade to Acquire Most of FXCM; NAGA Raises $8M
AvaTrade to Acquire Most of FXCM; NAGA Raises $8M
AvaTrade to Acquire Most of FXCM; NAGA Raises $8M
Today’s financial news recap covers AvaTrade agrees to acquire most of FXCM, NAGA secures eight million dollars in new financing, and Wise seeks a tax settlement in the UK.
Finance Magnates Daily Recap brings you the latest news from forex and CFD brokers, fintech, payments, cryptocurrency, digital assets, trading platforms, financial regulation and global markets.
Get the key company news, executive moves, deals, regulatory updates and market developments of the day, in just a few minutes. New episodes published every weekday.
Read more: https://www.financemagnates.com
#FinanceMagnates #ForexNews #FintechNews
Today’s financial news recap covers AvaTrade agrees to acquire most of FXCM, NAGA secures eight million dollars in new financing, and Wise seeks a tax settlement in the UK.Finance Magnates Daily Recap brings you the latest news from forex and CFD brokers, fintech, payments, cryptocurrency, digital assets, trading platforms, financial regulation and global markets.
Get the key company news, executive moves, deals, regulatory updates and market developments of the day, in just a few minutes. New episodes published every weekday.
Read more: https://www.financemagnates.com
#FinanceMagnates #ForexNews #FintechNews
Today’s financial news recap covers AvaTrade agrees to acquire most of FXCM, NAGA secures eight million dollars in new financing, and Wise seeks a tax settlement in the UK.
Finance Magnates Daily Recap brings you the latest news from forex and CFD brokers, fintech, payments, cryptocurrency, digital assets, trading platforms, financial regulation and global markets.
Get the key company news, executive moves, deals, regulatory updates and market developments of the day, in just a few minutes. New episodes published every weekday.
Read more: https://www.financemagnates.com
#FinanceMagnates #ForexNews #FintechNews
Today’s financial news recap covers AvaTrade agrees to acquire most of FXCM, NAGA secures eight million dollars in new financing, and Wise seeks a tax settlement in the UK.Finance Magnates Daily Recap brings you the latest news from forex and CFD brokers, fintech, payments, cryptocurrency, digital assets, trading platforms, financial regulation and global markets.
Get the key company news, executive moves, deals, regulatory updates and market developments of the day, in just a few minutes. New episodes published every weekday.
Read more: https://www.financemagnates.com
#FinanceMagnates #ForexNews #FintechNews
Today’s financial news recap covers AvaTrade agrees to acquire most of FXCM, NAGA secures eight million dollars in new financing, and Wise seeks a tax settlement in the UK.
Finance Magnates Daily Recap brings you the latest news from forex and CFD brokers, fintech, payments, cryptocurrency, digital assets, trading platforms, financial regulation and global markets.
Get the key company news, executive moves, deals, regulatory updates and market developments of the day, in just a few minutes. New episodes published every weekday.
Read more: https://www.financemagnates.com
#FinanceMagnates #ForexNews #FintechNews
Today’s financial news recap covers AvaTrade agrees to acquire most of FXCM, NAGA secures eight million dollars in new financing, and Wise seeks a tax settlement in the UK.Finance Magnates Daily Recap brings you the latest news from forex and CFD brokers, fintech, payments, cryptocurrency, digital assets, trading platforms, financial regulation and global markets.
Get the key company news, executive moves, deals, regulatory updates and market developments of the day, in just a few minutes. New episodes published every weekday.
Read more: https://www.financemagnates.com
#FinanceMagnates #ForexNews #FintechNews
