Over the past ten days, there has been over $1.2 billion in net selling, popular crypto analyst Maartuun observed. Binance’s Net Taker Volume showed Bitcoin holding near $78k despite sustained selling pressure.
As long as the $76k level holds, it would indicate supply absorption, the analyst concluded.
Bitcoin bulls’ resolve will likely be tested in September. It is statistically the most bearish month of the year. The Coinbase Premium Index had briefly turned positive towards the end of August but has since returned to negative territory.
The FOMC meeting on the 15th of September could prove critical to Bitcoin price trends. The CLARITY Act vote is also on the same day, adding to the threat of price volatility around the event.
A good time for long-term holders to take profits
From the 18th to the 28th of August, the 30-day Long-Term Holder [LTH] Distribution Sum increased substantially. It climbed from 174.5k to 281.9k BTC as Bitcoin surged above $80k, creating a favorable profit-taking window.
In this same window, the LTH MVRV rose from 1.31 to 1.64. A current reading of 1.60 showed that, on average, LTHs were 60% above their realized value.
Substantial unrealized profits raise the chances of profit-taking activity. Yet, despite this selling pressure, Bitcoin remained reasonably steady above $76k.
The path ahead for Bitcoin
The rally was approaching a key overhead swing level at $82,850. It is a key long-term supply zone that has to be cleared to keep the uptrend going.
However, the short-term consolidation raised the chances of a minor pullback.
The consolidation phase saw BTC prices oscillate between $76k and $80.5k. A breakout from this range is necessary to keep the move going.
Will the demand overpower the sellers and drive another price move higher? Or will the sellers exhaust demand, and profit-taking lead to a pullback below $76k?
The first sign of an answer will be a price breakout beyond either extreme of the range.
Final Summary
- There has been sizeable profit-taking activity in recent days, but the Bitcoin price has continued to hold on to $76k.
- The 15th of September could catalyze a period of high price volatility for crypto.