One year ago, Cam Ward walked into Tennessee as the first overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft and immediately looked like a franchise savior from the opening drive, despite the lack of a supporting cast. Jaxson Dart gave Giants fans genuine belief for the first time in years, while Tyler Shough surprised everyone with his steady displays in New Orleans. Then there was Shedeur Sanders — fifth-round pick, the most talked-about draft slide in recent memory — who bided his time and eventually claimed Cleveland’s starting job for himself despite being fourth on the depth chart after being selected 155th overall.
Now the 2026 class arrives. And three quarterbacks in particular already have the football world watching their depth chart situations like hawks. Not every rookie quarterback sees the field in their debut season. First overall picks have held clipboards for full seasons. But out of the entire quarterback class of 2026, these are the three names we think have the best chance of securing sustained game time in the NFL next season.
Fernando Mendoza – Raiders
No. 1 overall. A Heisman winner. A national title. A 16-0 season. And now, if the experts are to be believed, a clipboard in Las Vegas.
That’s the tension at the heart of the Fernando Mendoza situation, and the Raiders know exactly what they’ve signed up for. Before transferring to Indiana, the young gunslinger spent two productive seasons at California, building his résumé — 1,708 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2023, 3,004 yards and 16 scores in 2024. Legitimate numbers. But Indiana was where everything changed.
A 72 percent completion rate. 3,535 yards. 41 touchdowns against six interceptions. A 90.3 QBR that led all ofFBS. The Hoosiers went 16-0 and won Indiana’s first-ever national championship despite being 100/1 outsiders in preseason, and Mendoza walked away with the Heisman Trophy, the Maxwell Award, and the Walter Camp Award. The Raiders took him first overall — the franchise’s first quarterback taken No. 1 since JaMarcus Russell in 2007.
And yet. Kirk Cousins arrived in Las Vegas on a deal with $20 million guaranteed, with Aidan O’Connell still in the room as a fourth-year safety valve. The official plan is development. Let Cousins operate the offence while Mendoza absorbs the speed of the professional game from a front-row seat.
In theory, that’s responsible franchise management. In practice? The Raiders went 3-14 last season. The fan base has been patient long enough. And Tom Brady — minority owner, obsessive student of quarterback play — is directly involved in Mendoza’s development in ways that make this situation unlike any other rookie quarterback room in the league.
Online betting sites aren’t big on the Raiders’ hopes in 2026. In fact, 5Gringos online sportsbook positions them as a +600 shot to reach the playoffs, the fourth-longest odds of anybody. Should Cousins preside over a slow start, then Mendoza will likely get his shot earlier than anyone in Sin City would have hoped, development be damned.
Carson Beck – Cardinals
Carson Beck earned his opportunity twice. Once at Georgia, where he won two national championships, started in 2023 and threw for 3,941 yards with 24 touchdowns at a 72.4 completion rate — steady, composed, legitimate. And then the UCL tear in the 2024 SEC Championship Game threatened to unravel everything. Surgery. A transfer to Miami. A make-or-break 2025 season where Beck had to prove his elbow still worked, and his ceiling was still real.
It was. At Miami, he threw for 3,813 yards, completed 73 percent of his passes, and finished with 30 touchdowns as the Hurricanes went 13-2 — upsetting Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinal and then knocking off Ole Miss in the semis before falling 27-21 to Mendoza’s Indiana in the National Championship Game. Beck walked out of that season as the consensus QB3 in the 2026 class and landed in Arizona at No. 65 overall, the first pick of the third round, after the Cardinals released Kyler Murray.
The quarterback room they put him in is fascinating. Jacoby Brissett is the named starter. Gardner Minshew is the backup. Neither inspires much hope for an ailing franchise that is considered by many to be the worst in the NFL by some distance.
Brissett has spent his entire NFL career as a capable, professional placeholder — a man who keeps the seat warm without ever making it his own. That’s not an insult. It’s just the reality of his track record. And that track record is precisely why Beck is the most likely of this trio to see meaningful snaps before December.
To compound their weak roster, the Cardinals have also been handed the toughest schedule of anybody in 2026. That said, they do still have some quality players.
Trey McBride is one of the best tight ends in football. Marvin Harrison Jr. is entering Year 3 of what looks like a special career. First-round pick Jeremiyah Love gives the offence a legitimate weapon in the backfield. This is a roster that could potentially compete.
If Brissett delivers mediocrity — and his career average suggests that’s the realistic ceiling — the pressure on the Cardinals to turn to Beck won’t come from the coaching staff. It’ll come from the talent around him screaming to be used properly.
Cade Klubnik – Jets
Two ACC championships. A first-round projection. And then 2025 happened.
The nagging sprained right ankle cost Klubnik the season he needed most. Numbers dropped to 2,943 yards and just 16 touchdowns. Clemson stumbled to 7-6. The first-round buzz evaporated. Scouts who’d been high on his arm talent and mobility started hedging. And by draft weekend, Klubnik had slid all the way to the fourth round — pick No. 110.
Except the Jets didn’t stumble onto him. They traded up from 128. They gave up draft capital to move specifically to 110 and take him. That detail matters enormously in how you read this situation. The Green Machine isn’t treating Klubnik like a late-round dart-throw. They’re treating him like a quarterback they believe in — one whose 2025 season was a circumstantial anomaly, not a character verdict.
The room Klubnik enters is led by Geno Smith, bridge starter, freshly arrived following a disastrous stint with the Raiders. Bailey Zappe and Brady Cook round out the depth chart. Nobody in that room is the long-term answer, and everyone in that building knows it. The Jets have reportedly targeted the 2027 draft as their window for a true franchise quarterback solution.
Klubnik understands the timeline. He knows that he has precisely one shot to prove that he has what it takes to be a true starting quarterback in the NFL. If Smith is inconsistent, as he was last season in Las Vegas, the depth chart opens up. And the former Tiger has to grasp any opportunity that comes his way and immediately deliver.
NFL Draft Diamonds was created to assist the underdogs playing the sport. We call them diamonds in the rough. My name is Damond Talbot, I have worked extremely hard to help hundreds of small school players over the past several years, and will continue my mission. We have several contributors on this site, and if they contribute their name and contact will be in the piece above. You can email me at nfldraftdiamonds@gmail.com
