Texas Tech isn’t the College Football Playoff lock we thought

Texas Tech may be ranked No. 11 in the nation but its last two performances this season haven’t necessarily inspired the same kind of playoff-caliber confidence last year’s team did. The Red Raiders escaped two one-score contests and even their Week 1 win over FCS Abeline Christian was only a 23-point margin.

Last season Texas Tech leaned on the dominance of its defensive front and quarterback Behren Morton (when healthy) on its way to a Big 12 title and a 12-2 record. Most of that defense and Morton are now in the NFL and the team was hoping to ride top transfer prospect Brendan Sorsby’s talent to back-to-back conference championships. Of course, Sorsby self-exiled after his eligibility scandal and now Texas Tech is deploying last year’s backup, Will Hammond, and transfer Thomas Castellanos.

So far, that plan has yielded three wins in three weeks but the amount of scrappiness and close calls involved shouldn’t have anyone thinking the Big 12 title race is a foregone conclusion. Texas Tech is ripe for an upset or two down the road and other rivals could jump on the opportunity to make a surprise run late in the year.

Texas Tech’s shaky start leaves even bigger target on Big 12 favorite’s back

The only other Big 12 team that is considered a direct threat to Texas Tech’s title repeat is No. 9 BYU. There’s a reason the AP poll believes they’re the top team in the Big 12 and it’s because of the Red Raiders’ inability to dominate what should’ve been an easy opening to their schedule.

Beating Houston by only two points was not rewarded, and rightfully so. The Cougars almost took advantage of a huge opportunity to shake up the conference race and despite the loss, only dropped three spots in the rankings. They’re still very much in the race. Texas Tech also experienced the heart-stopping fear of playing in Corvallis, Oregon. The four former Pac-12 teams in the Big 12 probably chuckled watching the Red Raiders struggle to fend off the same Oregon State Beavers that derailed each of their own promising campaigns in the past.

If anything, Texas Tech is the most vulnerable it’s been since Oregon flattened it in the CFP quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl. Looking ahead at its schedule, the program gets a much-needed get-right game against Sam Houston State on Saturday before traveling to Boulder to face basement-dweller Colorado. The Red Raiders should be 5-0 by the time they enter a brutal back half of the season.

Any of Arizona State, Cincinnati, Arizona, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor or TCU could upend Texas Tech down the stretch. Especially with the inconsistency of Hammond and Castellanos (who threw a pick on the very first snap of his start against Houston), there’s just no way anyone can take Texas Tech seriously if they are favored over an opponent after Week 5.

Even if Texas Tech manages to make it to the Big 12 Championship Game, there’s plenty of reason to fear it won’t qualify for the CFP auto-bid if it has to face a tough opponent like BYU or Utah, two teams it won’t face in the regular season. The Red Raiders have committed three turnovers and nearly lost three more fumbles on the year. That’s from facing lesser foes, can you imagine how they’ll fare against another title contender?

Don’t buy into the Texas Tech hype, at least not yet. Until the team can put down comparable competition — of which there are no more ranked opponents on its schedule — the Red Raiders are vulnerable to a long list of CFP-disqualifying upsets.