The 2026 ALCS gets started Monday night, and our experts are all leaning the same direction
The 2026 American League Championship Series gets started Monday night as the Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians. The Rays, who have never won a championship, are seeking their third World Series appearance and first since 2020. Cleveland, meanwhile, has not won the AL pennant since 2016 and has not won the World Series since 1948.
The AL East-champion Rays had the best record in the American League this season, earning the top seed on this side of the bracket. Tampa dispatched the Yankees in a three-game sweep in the ALDS.
The Guardians are the AL’s No. 2 seed (despite having the league’s fourth-best record) and needed an ALDS comeback to move on to the Championship Series. Cleveland fell behind the White Sox 2-0 in the last round before winning three straight games to reach the best-of-seven ALCS.
So who do we think will be advancing to play either the Brewers or Dodgers in the 2026 Fall Classic? Our ALCS picks are below.
Rays vs. Guardians predictions
Series odds (via DraftKings): Rays -165, Guardians +135
Axisa: Rays in 5. The Guardians are coming in with a taxed pitching staff — closer Cade Smith has worked very hard the last few days — and a few too many hitters who didn’t do much in the ALDS. They’re behind the 8-ball big time. Plus, I just think the Rays are the better team. Comparable rotation, better offense, better defense and baserunning. The bullpen is the only area I think Cleveland has a clear advantage, and those guys are running on fumes. The Rays will grind out at-bats in a way the White Sox couldn’t.
Feldman: Rays in 5. I feel like a broken record at this point, but the Rays are better than most people are giving them credit for. They’re significantly better than the Guardians, even before you get to how decimated the Cleveland pitching staff is after the ALDS. Some of that is just the nature of playing a full five-game series vs. the Rays’ quick and easy sweep against the Yankees. Some of that is because Stephen Vogt has been managing every game like it’s Game 7 of the World Series. It’s worked so far, but it also has the Guardians headed into the ALCS at a complete disadvantage, one I don’t think they have any chance of overcoming.
McWilliams: Rays in 5. The Rays and Guardians play a similar brand of baseball. The difference? Tampa Bay does just about everything better. José Ramírez practically carried Cleveland to the ALCS, further cementing his place among the game’s elite. But it takes more than one superstar to beat a team like the Rays. Cleveland certainly has the pitching to compete, but its offense remains lackluster. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay can beat you in just about every way imaginable. The Rays put the ball in play, run the bases, play fundamentally sound baseball and have a far more dangerous lineup. The Guardians have mastered a formula for winning games. The problem is, the Rays have perfected it.
Perry: Rays in 6. The Rays are obviously the better team, as they were 13 games ahead of Cleveland during the regular season despite playing a tougher schedule. The Guardians’ lack of power has “fatal flaw” potential in October, when hitting home runs becomes even more important. Additionally, the five-game ALDS against the White Sox taxed the pitching staff, meaning they aren’t well set up for this series. Mostly, though, the Rays are just superior.
Snyder: Rays in 5. The Guardians are here due to an incredibly weak American League, especially on that side of the bracket. They are to be commended for coming back from an 0-2 hole, but this offense is one of the weakest in baseball and will be stifled by the Rays’ superior pitching staff. Remember all those strikeouts the Guardians got against the K-heavy White Sox? The Rays are the toughest team in baseball to strike out. They are clearly the better team overall, and it’ll show here pretty quickly.
