The Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens face off on in Rio. Here are the keys to the game.
Where’s the run defense?
Mobile quarterbacks have been a curse for the Cowboys to deal with. Jaxson Dart killed them in week one and Jayden Daniels had 69 yards on the ground at halftime before his injury. And now this defense faces the king of mobile quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson, paired with the ageless, elite runner, Derrick Henry.
Over those first two weeks, Dallas has allowed a whopping 347 yards on the ground. Over that same time span, Henry has 212 yards and four touchdowns. And the always dangerous Jackson has added another 74 rushing yards on 11 carries.
This is the whole game for the Cowboys. Success and failure for the “home” team in Rio completely hinges on this defense’s ability to limit Henry and Jackson on the ground.
This is a week where Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark should be used more vertically to penetrate rather than controlling the line of scrimmage with the gap-and-a-half scheme they’ve been working with. Hitting Henry in the backfield is paramount. Once he gets rolling, it’s a tall task to bring him down. Look for the Ravens to run a bunch off tackle to try and build his momentum. It’ll be up to this defensive line to make contact with the running back before he’s three yards downfield.
Containing Jackson is always a difficult ask. And after seeing what mobility from the passer did to the Cowboys in week one and two, the Ravens should look to get their quarterback involved with more designed run plays than they have through two weeks. On off-script runs, Jackson prefers to scramble outside and take off rather than running through the middle of the field. It’ll be important for the Cowboys’ edges to stay home and contain to limit his ability to escape the pocket.
If Dallas is to stand a chance this week, they’ll need to improve their run defense in a hurry against the best rushing team they’ve faced this season.
Winning on second down
Defensively, we know that third down has been brutal for Dallas. They’re currently ranked last in the NFL with a horrific 68% conversion rate allowed. For reference, last year’s 32nd-ranked defense allowed third downs to be converted at a rate of 47.25%. It’s early and there is a ton of football left to play, so let us not hit the panic button just yet. But this is an area that the defense needs extreme improvement over the next several weeks. So how does Dallas get better on third down?
The entire story can be explained by looking at second down.
Last week versus Washington, Dallas allowed just a 37.5% third down conversion rate when it was third and four or longer. That number would rank them in the top ten defensively. On third and less than three to go, however, this defense surrendered an 83.3% conversion rate.
First downs have been surprisingly successful for Dallas. According to SumerSports, the Cowboys rank eighth in the NFL at -0.08 EPA/play allowed. But when you flip to second down, Dallas plummets to the 32nd ranked defense at 0.35 EPA/play allowed.
If this defense can limit the Ravens’ offense on second down, forcing Jackson to throw on time on third down, the odds of coming away with a victory improve dramatically. They simply cannot allow Baltimore to live in third-and-short territory throughout the game.
Find the hidden yards
One of the most important keys to the game is the hidden yards. The special teams units for each squad will play a large role in this regard. The Ravens have the 29th-ranked kickoff unit, surrendering an average of 32 yards per return attempt through two weeks. Will KaVontae Turpin be able to utilize his speed this week against one of the weaker coverage units in the league? Even if he’s unable to break free for a score, setting up the offense with great field position would pay dividends considering the potentially rough field conditions.
On the flip side, Dallas’ kickoff unit ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 20.56 yards per return. Brandon Aubrey’s mastery of the “dirty ball” kickoff has been extremely effective – and he plans on continuing with the same tactic this week. We saw the ball on the ground on multiple kick return attempts last week thanks to the knuckle ball off the foot of the Cowboys kicker. It was instrumental in slowing down Washington’s return man. It should be a factor this week.
With the long trip, concerns about Maracanã’s grass field and injuries on both teams, this game could come down to who plays the simplest, most sound football. Fewer penalties, fewer missed assignments, and fewer self-inflicted wounds. The team that wins those hidden yards could be the team that leaves Maracanã with the win.
