Florida State vs. SMU prediction, odds, time: 2026 Week 1 college football Monday picks by proven model

Florida State will look to shake off a sloppy Week 1 performance against New Mexico State as the Seminoles host No. 19 SMU in a standalone matchup on Labor Day Monday. FSU won 34-17 in Week 0, but wasn’t close to covering as a 31-point favorite. Now the Seminoles take on the home underdog role against an SMU squad that has College Football Playoff aspirations after winning nine games last year and returning quarterback Kevin Jennings. SMU beat FSU 42-16 in 2024 in SMU’s first-ever ACC game and the only other time these teams have met. Visit our DraftKings promo code review and get $200 in bonus bets as a new user after $5+ in wagers here:

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla. The Mustangs are 2.5-point favorites in the latest SMU vs. Florida State odds, while the over/under is 53.5 points, up a point from the opening line. Before making any Florida State vs. SMU picks, check out the FSU vs. SMU predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It is on a 32-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks on betting sites since the 2024 season, and it has been upgraded for the 2026 season to even better factor in the transfer portal. Anybody following its college football betting picks could have seen strong returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on FSU vs. SMU. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for SMU vs. FSU.

Florida State vs. SMU spread	SMU -2.5
Florida State vs. SMU over/under	53.5 points
Florida State vs. SMU money line	SMU -152, FSU +127
Florida State vs. SMU picks	See picks at SportsLine
Florida State vs. SMU streaming	Fubo (Try for free)

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Top SMU vs. Florida State predictions

After simulating FSU vs. SMU 10,000 times, SportsLine’s model is going Under (53.5 points) on the total at the best betting apps. FSU struggled on offense in its Week 0 opener as quarterback Ashton Daniels had 202 passing yards and the Seminoles failed at times to protect him with a completely rebuilt offensive line. SMU had a top-25 defense last year, so FSU might not be able to put many points on the board in this one.

SMU has a talented leader in Jennings, but FSU was also a top-25 defensive unit last year and Jennings has been battling a finger issue during camp that could slow SMU’s offense a bit. SportsLine’s model is projecting 49 combined points as the Under hits 56% of the time. See the model’s spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

How to make Florida State vs. SMU picks

In addition to going Under on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins SMU vs. FSU, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that’s on a 32-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks, and find out.