UFC Fight Night predictions –

Set your alarm clocks if you’re in North America. UFC Fight Night returns on Saturday with an early morning card emanating from Shanghai. Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong is an important headliner, particularly with the bantamweight title at stake two months later.

Nurmagomedov (20-1) is seething in the lead-up to UFC Fight Night. His issues are not with Yadong, but with the man challenging for the bantamweight championship at UFC 333. Nurmagomedov wants another crack at Merab Dvalishvili, the only person to beat him. His issues stem less from the loss and more from a physical altercation between Dvalishvili and Nurmagomedov’s friend, Ahmed Gadzhimagomedov, in Georgia. It’s now personal, and that means Yadong has the misfortune of getting in the way.

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“I will fight with Merab,” Nurmagomedov told MMA Junkie. “Whether he wins or loses [to Petr Yan].

“Is it personal? I think yes. Already yes. Now it’s personal. Now it’s personal not just for me. It’s personal for all of Dagestan.”

Yadong (23-9, 1 NC) has a newfound connection to Dvalishvili’s birth country. Yadong, who primarily trains with UFC Hall of Famer Urijah Faber’s Team Alpha Male, cross-trained in Georgia ahead of Saturday’s homecoming.

“In Georgia, I trained with like all the big champs, world champs — defense, offense, some tricks I have never seen, so it’s good experience,” Song told MMA Junkie.

Yadong is the measuring stick for elite bantamweights. He virtually only loses to former champions and title challengers. It’s a commendable reputation, one he’s desperate to shed. Beating Nurmagomedov would undoubtedly be his biggest accomplishment.

“Everyone knows Umar is the best fighter,” Yadong said. “If I beat him, UFC will definitely give me the title shot after this. I believe in myself that I can win this fight for sure.”

China is well represented on the main card. One-time UFC title challenger Yan Xiaonan, Aoriqileng, Sumudaerji and Liu Ce represent the host nation. The only underdog among them is Sumudaerji, and for good reason. He faces former two-time RIZIN champion Kai Asakura. The Japanese star got off to a rocky start in the UFC, but looks rejuvenated at bantamweight. 

Bilal Hasan opens up the main card. “The Indoninja” earned a UFC contract after scoring a 45-second knockout on “Dana White’s Contender Series.” He follows Anthony Wint, his fellow Week 1 winner, by making a short turnaround for his UFC debut.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

Favorite	Underdog	Weightclass
Umar Nurmagomedov -600	Song Yadong +440	Bantamweight
Yan Xiaonan -142	Denise Gomes +120	Women’s strawweight
Kai Asakura -455	Aoriqileng +350	Bantamweight
Sumudaerji -218	Alex Perez +180	Flyweight
Liu Ce -185	Levi Rodrigues Jr. +154	Light heavyweight
Bilal Hasan -800	Nilson Rojas +550	Flyweight

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Saturday, Aug. 29 | Start time: 6 a.m. ET (Main card), 3 a.m. ET (Prelims)
Location: Oriental Sports Center — Shanghai
TV Channel: Paramount+ (subscribe now for as low as $8.99 per month)

Prediction

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong: Nurmagomedov is in a complicated position. A victory would be his third consecutive against a lower-ranked opponent. The UFC appears to put a premium on finishes these days. That’s why Sean O’Malley appears to be ahead of him in title contention. His coach, Javier Mendez, understands that showcase wins are important, but that wasn’t enough to deliver a memorable performance for Islam Makhachev at UFC 330. I fear the same will be true for Nurmagomedov. Yadong is remarkably durable. In 17 UFC fights, his only stoppage loss was due to a cut. He’s also far more difficult to fight at this juncture than Deiveson Figueiredo, who Nurmagomedov didn’t finish. Nurmagomedov leads Yadong in virtually all key statistics: striking accuracy and defense, takedown accuracy and defense and takedown frequency. Both men are well-rounded, but Nurmagomedov is simply better. That should get him another significant win, but not the kind that carries weight in 2026. Pick: Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision

Who wins Nurmagomedov vs. Yadong, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 2018, and find out.