Let’s Indulge in Some Way-Too-Early Emmy Predictions

Of course it’s too early to make Emmy predictions. May has barely begun. The nominations don’t come out until mid-July. Some of these shows haven’t premiered yet! All valid points. And yet what’s the fun of predictions if you can’t take some real stabs in the dark?

Here’s what we do know: Previous winners like The Pitt, Hacks, and Beef are back and promise to be major contenders. A couple dozen of last year’s nominated performers are eligible again. Half of Euphoria’s cast members are major movie stars now. The tea leaves are there — it’s time to start scrutinizing them.

Before we dive in, a reminder that we won’t know for sure how many nomination slots will be available in the acting categories until the Academy releases the full list of eligible nominees. The total number of nominees in each acting category is determined by the total number of performers submitted in those categories:

20–80 submissions = five nominees
81–160 submissions = six nominees
161–240 submissions = seven nominees
More than 240 submissions = eight nominees

Last year, that meant: 
➼ five nominees in Lead Actor/Actress in a Drama
➼ seven nominees in Supporting Actor/Actress in a Drama
➼ five nominees in Lead Actor/Actress in a Comedy
➼ seven nominees in Supporting Actor/Actress in a Comedy
➼ five nominees in Lead Actor/Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
➼ six nominees in Supporting Actor/Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll assume those numbers will remain constant. 

Four of last year’s nominees — The Pitt, Slow Horses, The Diplomat, and Paradise — are eligible again. That’s the most returning Outstanding Drama Series nominees in six years and the first time in four years that more than one of the previous year’s nominees are eligible again. Then there are the former nominees returning from a longer hiatus, including Euphoria, Stranger Things, The Boys, The Morning Show, The Gilded Age, and Fallout. That’s a formidable wall of Emmy-approved dramas that new shows like Apple’s Pluribus, AMC’s The Audacity, and HBO’s Task and A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms are going to have to break through.

As the defending champion, The Pitt sits at the top of the heap. Even without a mass-casualty event to headline its second season, the show delivered episodic tension and a seasonlong build for main protagonist Dr. Robby that took him from dependable ship captain to moody son of a bitch. However, I’m not sure the show leveled up the way sophomore Emmy champs Succession or Breaking Bad were able to, which leaves The Pitt open to a challenge. The Diplomat, Slow Horses, and Paradise all feel like worthy nominees, but the fact that these three crowd-pleasing geopolitical conspiracy yarns have such overlap in their themes is going to keep any one of them from leaping ahead as a winner. Then there’s Pluribus, a buzzy new show from the creator of Breaking Bad that could conceivably prove to be what Emmy voters have been waiting for: something as ideas-forward as Severance but anchored by a classic anti-hero in Rhea Seehorn’s Carol.

My wild-card contender is Euphoria, the drama that currently has the best claim on the attention span of the TV-watching public. It doesn’t hurt that in the years since it last appeared at the Emmys, Zendaya solidified her position as one of Hollywood’s most bankable actresses (shout-out to The Drama clearing $100 million worldwide) and Sydney Sweeney and Jacob Elordi have become legit movie stars. Does that kind of discourse-friendly success override the fact that Euphoria is too young, too scummy, and too dumb to fit into the usual Emmy pattern?

The scrum for the last two available slots is going to be interesting. The Testaments is hoping Chase Infiniti’s Oscars mojo, combined with the goodwill of the same folks who voted for The Handmaid’s Tale the last time Trump got elected, will thrust it into the race. Task has a good pedigree (from the folks behind Mare of Easttown) and an Emmy-winning star in Mark Ruffalo, but it’s got both The Pitt and Euphoria (and maybe The Gilded Age?) ahead of it in the HBO priority lane. Meanwhile, last we saw of The Morning Show, it had pulled down 16 nominations in 2024. Was the most recent season really so bad (or this year’s competition really so good) that it’d fall entirely out of contention?

Predictions: The Diplomat, Euphoria, The Morning Show, Paradise, The Pitt, Pluribus, Slow Horses, The Testaments

The irony of Dr. Robby’s arc this season is that it makes his The Pitt character less likable while giving Noah Wyle an even stronger case for a second consecutive Emmy win. Last year’s nominees Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) and Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) haven’t given us any reason to think Emmy voters will have changed their minds this year. That leaves us with two to three open slots and a fairly robust competition for them. The Diplomat is a show that is seeing its Emmy fortunes rise simply because it’s a consistent show in a year without too many heavy hitters, and Rufus Sewell is the cast member most likely to benefit from that, especially considering his character — the newly minted veep — is as prominent as he’s ever been in the show’s three-season run.

Walton Goggins and Idris Elba were both nominated two years ago, for Fallout and Hijack, respectively, which means they shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand. But Fallout’s buzz faded mightily in its second season. (Of course, Hijack never had a ton of buzz to begin with and still got Elba that nomination, so what does buzz know?)

Mark Ruffalo (Task), Billy Magnussen (The Audacity), and Peter Claffey (A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms) are representing new series and provide a “Three Little Pigs”–esque hierarchy of fame that puts Ruffalo (his fame made of brick) ahead of Magnussen (his fame made of wood), who’s ahead of Claffey (whose fame is made of straw).

Billy Bob Thornton’s case for Landman is the same case that’s been made for every star of a Taylor Sheridan show for the past five years: Will this be the show/performance that finally overwhelms the Emmy voters’ repeated disinterest in the whole Sheridan thing? Jon Hamm’s case for Your Friends & Neighbors remains the same as it was last year: Will this show be on enough voters’ radars for them to remember that they love Jon Hamm?

Predictions: Sterling K. Brown, Gary Oldman, Mark Ruffalo, Rufus Sewell, Noah Wyle

Not only is Zendaya a two-time winner in this category, but she’s also never lost it. In the years since that second win, she’s become an even bigger star and Euphoria has become an even bigger deal. I have a feeling certain corners of the media and very online TV fans will think Rhea Seehorn has a better chance to win for Pluribus, but she seems very secure for a nomination, at least. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) fills out this category’s three locks, having reached “mark her down in ink” status as an Emmy-voter fave.

While Kathy Bates is a likely returning nominee, the fact that she didn’t win last year when the momentum seemed entirely on her side might reveal that Emmy voters aren’t as keen on Matlock as CBS viewers are. The flip side of that coin is Jennifer Aniston, whose chances are being underrated this year because The Morning Show’s fourth season aired back in the fall and didn’t seem to possess as much of the show’s usual “This is so bad I love it” buzz. I’d still underestimate Aniston (and The Morning Show in general) at your own peril.

For the final spot, Alien: Earth’s Sydney Chandler snagged a Gotham nomination, The Gilded Age’s Carrie Coon is a returning nominee, and The Audacity’s Sarah Goldberg has some “We loved Barry!” momentum, but with The Testaments, Chase Infiniti’s combination of Oscar-season notoriety and the Emmys’ traditional fondness for the Handmaid’s Television Universe puts her in line for a nomination.

Predictions: Kathy Bates, Chase Infiniti, Keri Russell, Rhea Seehorn, Zendaya

This is potentially a very fun category for clashing Emmy-voting tendencies to come into play. The voters love to load up on supporting nominees from front-running shows, and now that they’ve had two seasons with The Pitt’s cast, the show should really score in the supporting races. This is good news for Patrick Ball as prodigal pill-popper Dr. Langdon and last year’s Guest Actor winner Shawn Hatosy as danger doc Jack Abbot. And if the voters are really Pitt-pilled, they could throw in Gerran Howell as Dr. “Huckleberry” Whitaker.

Emmy voters aren’t shy about hopping on bandwagons — remember when Melissa McCarthy won for Mike & Molly right after Bridesmaids made her a movie star? — which bodes well for Euphoria’s recently Oscar-nominated Jacob Elordi. And the Academy’s well-established loyalty to former Emmy nominees means two-time winner Billy Crudup (The Morning Show) should be in the mix, as could recent nominees Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) and James Marsden (Paradise).

In a category that has clocked in at seven nominees in each of the past two years, a ton of performances will be banging on the door from the outside. Carlos-Manuel Vesga got plenty of screen time to make his case in the back half of Pluribus’s first season. Tom Pelphrey was considered a fairly major snub for Ozark back in 2020, then got a Guest Actor nod in 2022. If that trajectory keeps going up, a nomination for his acclaimed performance on Task wouldn’t be a surprise. He got a Gotham nomination for it, as did fellow contenders Babou Ceesay (Alien: Earth), Dexter Sol Ansell (A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms), and Zach Galifianakis (The Audacity). All four of these actors would benefit greatly from their respective shows becoming bigger contenders in the Drama Series conversation.

On the “Can we please get some Industry noms” front, both Ken Leung and Kit Harington stood out this season. In a less-crowded field, I’d feel better about their chances. Finally, one name I’d throw out as a pure wild card: Rory Kinnear, whose irksome British PM on The Diplomat asserted himself even more obnoxiously this season, giving Kinnear plenty of material to work with on a show we know Emmy voters like.

Predictions: Patrick Ball, Billy Crudup, Jacob Elordi, Shawn Hatosy, Gerran Howell, Tom Pelphrey, Carlos-Manuel Vesga

Katherine LaNasa scored the victory in this category last year as the sole representative of The Pitt’s supporting cast. I expect she’ll have more company this year. In terms of screen time and story lines, I’d put both Taylor Dearden and Isa Briones at the top of the list of likely nominees with Sepideh Moafi as a more outside possibility as season two’s new interim chief. The news that Supriya Ganesh won’t be returning for The Pitt’s third season could spawn a wave of goodwill among Emmy voters, though that didn’t do much for Tracy Ifeachor’s chances last season.

Elsewhere, if Emmy voters are as into Pluribus as critics and TV nerds have been, Karolina Wydra should be a shoo-in supporting nominee. I also feel pretty good about Sydney Sweeney’s chances for a Euphoria nomination. Yes, she’s a lightning rod for the most annoying conversations, but she was also a double nominee in this category back in 2022 (for Euphoria and The White Lotus), and that was before she became a bankable box-office presence. Hunter Schafer is also a possibility for Euphoria, though the show’s inconsistencies in writing for her character could be a roadblock.

Allison Janney is a seven-time Emmy winner, though she hasn’t won since 2015 and she got snubbed last year for The Diplomat (this could be because she submitted in Supporting Actress despite appearing in only two episodes). She’s all over season three, however, and if The Pitt actresses split each other’s votes, a Janney win would not be surprising.

Julianne Nicholson was something of a surprise nominee for Paradise last year, but as the show’s most interesting character, it makes sense, and I’d put her in strong contention for a return nomination this year. Her Hulu compatriot Ann Dowd — who won this award back in 2017 and was nominated twice more after that — could be back as her Handmaid’s Tale character crosses over to The Testaments. And while Marisa Abela has the indefatigable Industry boosters behind her, we’ve been burned by Emmy hope for that show before.

Predictions: Isa Briones, Taylor Dearden, Allison Janney, Katherine LaNasa, Julianne Nicholson, Sydney Sweeney, Karolina Wydra

Over the past four years, the quintet of Hacks, Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, The Bear, and Shrinking have comprised 15 of the 32 total Outstanding Comedy Series nominations, and Shrinking is the only one of those shows not nominated for all eligible seasons (it missed its first). There’s bound to come a time when a bunch of buzzy new comedies sweep the old guard out of office — The Studio seemed like the tip of that spear, only it’s not returning in time for the May 31 eligibility cutoff — and I don’t think this year’s crop of freshman series is strong enough to pull off a regime change. If you’re trying to bet safe money, these are the five shows I’d wager on, even if The Bear is on shakier ground than the others.

That still leaves three slots up for grabs. Last year, Nobody Wants This occupied one and it could again, even if its second season didn’t spark much conversation. In fact, Netflix’s second-year comedies were all remarkably quiet. Wednesday and A Man on the Inside returned with whisper-quiet buzz and The Four Seasons isn’t garnering much anticipation for its upcoming season, either. Netflix’s big comedy bet might be the Dan Levy–Rachel Sennott co-creation Big Mistakes; the biting, farcical series about adult siblings who get caught up in the drug business plays like Weeds crossed with The Other Two. It’s not exactly breaking new ground, but the jokes land, the performances are strong, and it led the Gotham nominations. All that said, I’d throw the entire Netflix contingent overboard to get a nomination for NBC’s The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins, from producers Robert Carlock and Sam Means.

Apple TV has a handful of contenders it would like to see alongside Shrinking. Palm Royale is the only one that was previously nominated (in 2024), and Widow’s Bay is the cute one with Matthew Rhys, but the one that seems most primed for an Emmy run is Margo’s Got Money Troubles, from 30-time Emmy nominee (and 11-time winner) David E. Kelley. It’s got everything: timely economic anxiety, palatable sex work, Michelle Pfeiffer and Nicole Kidman in the supporting cast. It’s all happening.

With Hacks’s nomination secured, the question is whether HBO can pull in The Comeback or the Bill Lawrence–produced Rooster for additional noms. It would be the first Outstanding Comedy Series nomination for The Comeback, but given how much the season rails against the existential threat of AI, I’d expect the creatives within the TV Academy to respond strongly.

Predictions: Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Big Mistakes, The Comeback, Hacks, Margo’s Got Money Troubles, Only Murders in the Building, Shrinking 

With last year’s winner, Seth Rogen, out of the running, voters will be faced with the choice of reverting to The Bear’s Jeremy Allen White or crowning someone new — even if that someone new ends up being 76-year-old Martin Short or 80-year-old Steve Martin for Only Murders in the Building. Or maybe voters will keep the streak of awarding old Freaks and Geeks cast members rolling and give the Emmy to Shrinking’s Jason Segel. Nobody in this field feels particularly inevitable, which makes it all refreshingly unpredictable.

Several former Emmy winners (Ted Danson for A Man on the Inside, Matthew Rhys for Widow’s Bay) could find themselves in contention here, and Dan Levy’s role as a pastor who becomes a reluctant drug runner in Big Mistakes has him somehow more distressed than he was on Schitt’s Creek. Of course, there’s also the famously six-times-nominated, never-awarded Steve Carell, whose charming performance in Rooster almost makes up for the creep he played on The Morning Show.

Adam Brody (nominated for Nobody Wants This last year) picked up nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and Actor Awards for season two. He’s looking solid, but I’d keep an eye on Ethan Hawke, fresh off an Oscar nomination, for FX’s The Lowdown.

Tim Robinson in The Chair Company feels like this year’s version of Nathan Fielder’s campaign for The Rehearsal: a pipe dream for a cooler version of the Academy that probably won’t materialize. What I hope is less of a pipe dream is a nomination for Tracy Morgan for The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins, which, yes, plays a lot of the Tracy Jordan hits from the 30 Rock days, but he’s so funny when he’s in that zone. In a field of dramedy actors, Morgan would be a great jolt of pure comedy.

Predictions: Adam Brody, Steve Carell, Jason Segel, Martin Short, Jeremy Allen White

After several years of “Jean Smart versus no one,” the four-time Hacks champion might have a battle on her hands. Lisa Kudrow has been nominated for her two previous seasons of The Comeback, and with her status as a comedy legend even more firmly in place — and the TV Academy ideally a more adventurous bunch than it was 12 years ago — this could be her year.

Elle Fanning was nominated back in 2022 for The Great; she’s poised to return again as a single mom paying the bills with OnlyFans on Margo’s Got Money Troubles. She’s new blood in a field that also features Abbott Elementary’s Quinta Brunson (four nominations, one win), The Bear’s Ayo Edebiri (two nominations plus a 2023 win in Supporting Actress), Nobody Wants This’s Kristen Bell (2025 nominee), Only Murders in the Building’s Selena Gomez (2024 nominee), Palm Royale’s Kristen Wiig (2024 nominee), Loot’s Maya Rudolph (2024 nominee), and Wednesday’s Jenna Ortega (2023 nominee) plus a pair of seven-time nominees in Tina Fey (The Four Seasons) and Jane Kaczmarek (Malcolm in the Middle: Life’s Still Unfair).

Of that bunch, I’d put the most faith in Brunson and, oddly, Ortega. While Wednesday was a complete nonevent in its second season, its star was nominated by both the Golden Globes and Actor Awards. I’m most interested to see if the Emmys will hit the nostalgia button and give Kaczmarek an eighth nomination for Malcolm in the Middle (she famously never won). There’s also a chance she submits in the Supporting Actress category.

Besides Fanning, the best chance for new-blood nominees comes from the Rachel Sennott tree. She’s a contender herself for her HBO series I Love LA, while Taylor Ortega will be in the mix for playing a Rachel Sennott type in Big Mistakes. I’m not sure I trust the Emmy voters to be quite so cool as to nominate either of them, but there’s always a chance that shows like The Bear and Only Murders experience a steep drop in Emmy interest, which would benefit the newer contenders.

Predictions: Quinta Brunson, Elle Fanning, Lisa Kudrow, Jenna Ortega, Jean Smart

Jeff Hiller, last year’s most delightful Emmy winner, is out of the mix (RIP, Somebody Somewhere), as is The Studio’s Ike Barinholtz. But the other five nominees from 2025 are back in contention again: Harrison Ford and Michael Urie for Shrinking, Ebon Moss-Bachrach for The Bear, Colman Domingo for The Four Seasons, and Bowen Yang, who got in half a season of SNL before his departure. I could see the TV Academy giving him one last go (Amy Poehler was nominated in 2009 after exiting SNL the previous December, and Kristen Wiig, Bill Hader, and Kate McKinnon were all nominated for their final seasons). I could also see voters pulling a double-nominee torch-passing by nominating both Yang and Marcello Hernández.

Outside of the Shrinking guys, who seem pretty locked, everyone else is up in the air. While it’s not likely that Moss-Bachrach gets snubbed, I don’t trust the floor not to fall out from under The Bear this year. I thought Paul W. Downs was all but locked for a nom last year, and he didn’t get it, but I still expect him to be back in the lineup for Hacks’s final season. I’m less certain about Tyler James Williams, whose snub last year was either the end of his three-year nomination run for Abbott Elementary or a mere hiccup.

I’m optimistic for a few fresh nominees this year. Nick Offerman was never nominated for Parks and Recreation, but since then he’s become a four-time Emmy nominee and winner for The Last of Us. Playing Elle Fanning’s pro-wrestler dad on Margo’s Got Money Troubles feels like a good avenue for his first nomination in a comedy category. The Comeback never got any nominations in the supporting categories, but Andrew Scott could pull some attention as the show’s serpentine tech-bro CEO. I’m most excited for the possibility of a nomination for Daniel Radcliffe, who as a neurotic documentarian on The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins has been the comedic triumph of the season.

Predictions: Paul W. Downs, Harrison Ford, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Nick Offerman, Daniel Radcliffe, Michael Urie, Bowen Yang

Hannah Einbinder is the odds-on favorite to repeat in this category for Hacks’s grand farewell, so you can lock her into this lineup. And with Shrinking a likely across-the-board Emmy player this year, I’d be surprised if two-time nominee Jessica Williams isn’t back again this year. Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph have been tandem nominees for Abbott Elementary for the past four years, but multiple supporting nominations for a show that far into its run is a rare thing. The last series to get multiple noms in Supporting Actress in a Comedy past its fourth season was Sex and the City in 2004.

Liza Colón-Zayas is a former winner in this category, and Carol Burnett is Carol Burnett, so they’re definitely still in the running, but with The Bear delivering diminishing returns over its past couple seasons and Palm Royale getting canceled back in March, their odds aren’t as good as they once seemed. I think both will face real challenges from the likes of Margo’s Got Money Troubles’s Michelle Pfeiffer (playing a former Hooters waitress in a streaming comedy produced by her husband, naturally) and perpetual Emmys favorite Laurie Metcalf (playing an impossible-to-please mom and small-town mayoral candidate in Big Mistakes).

If The Comeback is a stronger overall performer than it’s been in the past, we could see a long-overdue nomination for Laura Silverman as documentarian Jane. And speaking of long overdue, after years of Living Single getting overlooked by the Emmys, a nomination for Erika Alexander’s excellent work in The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins would be more than well deserved. Finally, while I think a final-season nomination for Megan Stalter is in the cards for Hacks, I wonder if voters might instead turn their attention to Robby Hoffman, who’s stealing scenes left and right as the series draws to a close.

Predictions: Erika Alexander, Hannah Einbinder, Janelle James, Laurie Metcalf, Michelle Pfeiffer, Sheryl Lee Ralph, Jessica Williams

The past three winners in this category are present again, in some form, as 2023 winner Beef returns with its long-awaited second season, 2024 winner Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer) is back with the dark and violent Half Man, and 2025 winner Jack Thorne (Adolescence) adapts Lord of the Flies for the first time on television. All three shows are among the most prestigious options in a field that runs the stylistic gamut.

The Beast in Me and All Her Fault are two shows that felt twinned from the start; both star Emmy-winning actresses (Claire Danes and Sarah Snook, respectively) in believe-women narratives that play like elevated trash (complimentary … ish) and press on true-crime buttons despite being fully fictional. They were both recognized at the Golden Globes and Actor Awards, so they’ve got a leg up on some of these other shows.

HBO is looking for its first multiple-nominee year in this category since 2021 (the Mare of Easttown–I May Destroy You year), and its best chance at that would be a nomination for DTF St. Louis, the dark-comedy sex mystery from Patriot creator Steven Conrad. With an Emmy-friendly cast (Jason Bateman, David Harbour, Linda Cardellini) and solid reviews, this could be a dark horse in the race.

Netflix received three nominations in this category last year, and it will try to push for even more now. In addition to Beef, Lord of the Flies, and The Beast in Me, it’s got the historical drama Death by Lightning, the crime thriller Black Rabbit, and Ryan Murphy’s Monster: The Ed Gein Story. Both previous seasons of Monster were nominated here, but this year another Murphy-produced series offers a more polished, snob-friendly affair: FX’s Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette, which gets you all the celebrity rubbernecking of a Murphy series crossed with the blue-blooded aristocracy of The Crown’s Diana seasons.

Predictions: Beef, DTF St. Louis, Half Man, Lord of the Flies, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette

The TV Movie category is back to perplex us with a grab bag of movies that can’t help but feel like studio castoffs. But this year’s crop is headlined by a pair of movies in which widows form unlikely bonds with younger men in heartwarming ways, so they can’t all be bad. With its Mother’s Day weekend premiere date, Remarkably Bright Creatures looks to be Netflix’s late-season Emmy play. Sally Field and Lewis Pullman play unlikely companions in a small seaside town, joined by a narrating octopus voiced by Alfred Molina. Just hand it the trophy now!

But wait — also premiering in May and starring an Oscar and Emmy winner is Miss You, Love You, from director Jim Rash, which HBO acquired at Sundance. Allison Janney stars as a grieving widow who must plan her husband’s funeral with her estranged son’s assistant (Andrew Rannells). Despite Rash’s comedy chops (he played Community’s Dean Pelton), he’s also an Oscar winner for co-writing the George Clooney dramedy The Descendants, so this might end up being the movie with more gravitas.

The others are a real mixed bag. Hulu’s Swiped and Prime Video’s Deep Cover were released last fall, the latter to pretty good reviews. Swiped didn’t fare as well critically, but in telling the origin story of Bumble as a feminist triumph, it’s enough of a prestige mirage to count in a category this thin.

Hulu’s Mike & Nick & Nick & Alice and Prime Video’s Deep Cover are potentially both battling it out for the action-comedy slot, while People We Meet on Vacation is hoping the humble rom-com still has a place in the awards ecosystem.

Predictions: Deep Cover; Miss You, Love You; People We Meet on Vacation; Remarkably Bright Creatures; Swiped

If the second season of Beef goes the way of its first at the Emmys, all major cast members will be serious threats not only for nominations but the win. This is good news for Oscar Isaac, who was previously nominated in 2022 for Scenes From a Marriage and inexplicably not nominated for the David Simon–produced HBO series about corruption in Yonkers, Show Me a Hero, in 2016. Beef’s whole thing is finding the weak, corruptible center of all its characters, and Isaac jumps into that project with enthusiasm. But if awards were determined by enthusiasm alone, The Beast in Me’s Matthew Rhys would be running away with his second Emmy (after winning for The Americans in 2018). He plays his probably wife-murdering neighbor with such zeal and ferocity it’s no wonder he showed up as a nominee at all the major year-end precursors.

With Isaac and Rhys locked, the three available slots will be in hot competition. Jamie Bell has his best chance at major award hardware since his Billy Elliot days as the protagonist of Richard Gadd’s violent examination of masculinity in Half Man. Speaking of which, Charlie Hunnam picked up precursor nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and Actor Awards for his performance in Monster: The Ed Gein Story. The titular monsters in this anthology series tend to do well at the Emmys (Evan Peters as Jeffrey Dahmer and Cooper Koch as Erik Menendez were both nominated). Then, of course, there’s Paul Anthony Kelly playing a very different real-life character as John F. Kennedy Jr. Kelly’s performance has taken a back seat to the acclaim for some of his co-stars, and he risks being overshadowed here by more dynamic turns from Bell, Hunnam, and Bait’s Riz Ahmed, who plays an actor in consideration for the next James Bond.

Netflix has two shows in contention whose paired male leads could cannibalize the other’s vote. Death by Lightning features award-worthy leading performances by Michael Shannon and Matthew Macfadyen as President James Garfield and his assassin Charles Guiteau, respectively. Both deserve nominations, but I’m concerned they might not get them, especially since the show premiered back in November. Black Rabbit premiered even earlier than that (September), and one of its stars — Jason Bateman, as the chaotic brother to NYC restaurateur Jude Law — is a potential nominee in the supporting category for another show.

Predictions: Jamie Bell, Charlie Hunnam, Oscar Isaac, Matthew Macfadyen, Matthew Rhys

A loaded category is headlined by Carey Mulligan’s fierce, contemptible, often hilarious performance as Oscar Isaac’s fed-up wife in Beef. Ali Wong won the Emmy for Beef’s first season, but she didn’t have to go up against the ghosts of the Kennedy dynasty. Sarah Pidgeon makes a good case for herself in Love Story as the great find of the TV season, confidently carrying a show loaded with acting talent and narrative weight with all of Carolyn Bessette Kennedy’s beauty and charm.

There was a time when it seemed as if this category was going to be a battle between Claire Danes and Sarah Snook for elevated-Lifetime-movie supremacy. I don’t think that’s the case anymore with Mulligan and Pidgeon storming through the spring season, but I’d wager both Danes and Snook are still secure for nominations.

This leaves one open slot. Does it go to Tessa Thompson as one-half of an ex-husband-and-wife duo trying to solve a murder on Netflix’s highly rated His & Hers? Will longtime Emmy faves Kerry Washington or Elisabeth Moss sneak into the lineup for the poorly reviewed but guiltily watchable Imperfect Women? Could Sally Field (Remarkably Bright Creatures) or Allison Janney (Miss You, Love You) become the first nominee in this category from a film since Laura Dern in 2018 for The Tale?

Predictions: Claire Danes, Carey Mulligan, Sarah Pidgeon, Sarah Snook, Tessa Thompson

First of all, it’s patently ridiculous that the entire cast for DTF St. Louis is submitting in the supporting categories. This isn’t some Altman film with 25 characters and no clear leads. As inconvenient as it is owing to their lead campaigns for Black Rabbit and Stranger Things, respectively, Jason Bateman and David Harbour are the leads of their show (this goes for you, too, Linda Cardellini). Honestly, you could make the case that both Charles Melton (Beef) and Richard Gadd (Half Man) are also co-leads on their shows, but I don’t want to get gummed up by category talk just yet. Suffice it to say, the heft of these actors’ roles ought to help them catch the attention of Emmy voters.

As for the actual supporting players, I’d guess the copious bearded faces of Death by Lightning will contend. And while both Bradley Whitford (as political operator James Blaine) and especially Shea Whigham (as influence-peddling Republican Roscoe Conkling) are both deserving, they don’t have the benefit Nick Offerman enjoys of playing Chester A. Arthur from corrupt party bully to Garfield’s loyal veep.

Calvin Klein is, in many ways, a different kind of historical figure than Chester A. Arthur, but Alessandro Nivola’s performance could put both men’s names in the same presenter copy come Emmys Night.

Predictions: Richard Gadd, David Harbour, Charles Melton, Alessandro Nivola, Nick Offerman, Shea Whigham

The three-way battle for the trophy between Beef’s Cailee Spaeny (as a Gen-Z opportunist) and Youn Yuh-jung (as a ruthless Korean CEO) and Love Story’s Naomi Watts (reminding us all what a crazy speaking voice Jackie Kennedy had) has the potential to be very exciting.

They’ll be surrounded by a fascinating array of co-nominees. I’d bet Grace Gummer scores her first major award nomination for her turn as Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg in Love Story. The journey of a thousand nominations to catch up to her mom begins with a single step!

Linda Cardellini benefits from some light category fraud here, but she’s no lock for a nomination, considering she’s up against three-time Emmy nominee Betty Gilpin playing a presidential widow in Death by Lightning and 12-time nominee (with four wins) Laurie Metcalf, who plays in Monster the woman who raised Norman Bates and Leatherface all in one. Perhaps she was the real monster! (No, it was definitely Ed Gein.)

Predictions: Linda Cardellini, Betty Gilpin, Grace Gummer, Cailee Spaeny, Naomi Watts, Youn Yuh-jung

Correction: The newsletter version of this article incorrectly stated the platform The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins airs on. It’s an NBC series.

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