Bullet point summary by AI
- Both the Phillies and Pirates enter their four-game series with critical flaws that could derail their playoff ambitions.
- Philadelphia’s offense struggles against left-handed pitching, while Pittsburgh’s bullpen ranks among the worst in baseball.
- The trade deadline looms as the only chance for either team to address these weaknesses before October pressure begins.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates begin a four-game series on Monday night, with the two in-state rivals battling for a spot in the NL Wild Card race (and, in Philadelphia’s case, a perch atop their division).
While Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are talented enough to earn their spots in October, both teams also feature major — and potentially fatal — flaws, ones which will be hard to overcome without significant upgrades at the MLB trade deadline.
The Phillies lineup needs more right-handed power
The Phillies’ formula is the same as it ever was: a lights-out pitching staff and MVP-caliber production at the top of the lineup. Between Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh, however, it’s worth noting that the team’s three best hitters this season are all left-handed.
Marsh has long been more of a platoon bat than an everyday bopper. He is destroying right-handed pitching this season, but he struggles in lefty-on-lefty matchups (.690 OPS). Harper’s splits (.685 OPS vs. left-handed pitching) are even worse so far in 2026. Schwarber is the Phillies’ one true masher regardless of who’s on the mound.
The Phillies only have three regulars (the names above) with an OPS over .700 on the season. Their most established right-handed bats on Trea Turner (.619 OPS), JT Realmuto (.611 OPS) and Alec Bohm (.637 OPS), who this season rank among the very worst hitters at their respective positions. Justin Crawford has elite contact skills from the left side of the plate; Bryson Stott fairs well in those matchups, too. But when southpaws take the mound, the Phillies are left without viable alternatives. Edmundo Sosa (.642 OPS) has not been the strong platoon force he was in years past.
Philadelphia collectively has a .669 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. The Phillies’ offense as a whole lacks depth and consistency, but those matchups are a real killer. Looking ahead to October, with the Dodgers (Blake Snell), Braves (Chris Sale) and Brewers (Kyle Harrison) all potential roadblocks en route to the World Series, this feels like a weak link that could unravel the whole chain. It does not help that Philadelphia is also — by far — the worst defensive team in the league, if we want to spotlight that as Critical Flaw No. 2.
The Pirates need major help in the bullpen
The Pirates are .500 on the season and 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a 23-22 home record and a 19-20 road record. Few teams are this aggressively average. Pittsburgh’s roster is not short on talent, though, and as we saw early in the season, there are real glimpses of a higher ceiling.
Pittsburgh’s strength resides primarily in its rotation. Paul Skenes has not enjoyed the Cy Young follow-up campaign that fans hoped for, but if you’re hand-picking your 1A starter for a playoff series, he would rank very high on the list. Braxton Ashcraft deserves legitimate All-Star consideration. Mitch Keller is Mitch Keller.
At this point, the Pirates are waiting on Jared Jones to shake off the rust, which is not a bad bet. If Budda Chandler can command the zone more effectively and operate with a bit more consistency (four straight games with two or fewer earned runs allowed is a promising step in the right direction), Pittsburgh will be well-equipped come October.
That is, until the bullpen comes into play. Pittsburgh has the 20th-best bullpen ERA in baseball this season (4.33) and it can often feel much worse than that. David Bednar’s presence is missed deeply. Dennis Santana has a strong track record in high-leverage innings, but he’s having a miserable campaign, with a 4.72 ERA in 34.1 innings. He lost the closing gig to Gregory Soto, who isn’t that much more dependable (3.93 ERA in 34.1 innings). Soto has 11 saves to four blown saves.
Evan Sisk leads the Bucs bullpen in ERA (2.29) and is second to Soto in fWAR (0.6), but he has three blown saves. The Pirates can’t depend on him in the highest leverage spots come October, either. And Sisk is the only Pirates reliever with a sub-3.00 ERA at the moment.
It’s not all a lost cause. Mason Montgomery shows incredible flashes and he’s up to a 12.5 K/9 on the season. Carmen Mlodzinski has always fared better as a reliever than as a starter, and he’s beginning to find his groove with the ‘pen. But, unless the Pirates can make significant upgrades at the deadline, it is going to be very hard to hold narrow leads in a playoff series. And that’s assuming Pittsburgh can even get there in the first place.
Skenes is far too familiar with the feeling of patiently building and maintaining a lead over six innings, only to watch Pittsburgh’s relievers blow it down the stretch. It’s a problem that needs to be addressed.
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