SATURDAY AM: Those who’ve watched Lucasfilm/Disney’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu are giving it an A- CinemaScore, the same grade as Solo: A Star Wars Story, with definite recommend on PostTrak that’s staying steady at 71%. All of this pegs out to $33M in previews and first Friday yesterday for what’s shaping up to be a $91M-$96M 4-day. Rivals are calling the Jon Favreau-directed movie at $100M over the 4-day holiday, but it ain’t there, until its there. In the old days (meaning pre-Covid), Disney would softball weekend forecasts, but the studio is pretty much on the mark post-Covid, not underestimating for bloated headlines sake. The three-day is between $81M-$82M.
Diversity demos for Mandalorian and Grogu are 52% Caucasian, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 10% Black, 8% Asian American and 6% Native American/other. Of those ticket buyers going to watch the Baby Yoda movie, 68% of them are Disney+ subscribers, more than other any other streaming subscriber in the theater (Netflix subs are attending at 62%).
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Imax and PLFs are repping 48% of ticket sales so far with Imax accounting for 16% alone and 3D pulling in an 8% share. Mandalorian and Grogu is playing in West, Mountain, Midwest, and Western Canada where 47.4% of their gross is coming compared to a norm of 45.3% for all other titles in the marketplace. AMC Disney Springs in Orlando is the pic’s leading location with close to $133K. Kids under 12 gave it a 95% positive and a 54% must-see right away; good enough for the nag factor to parents, I’m told.
By the way, while Star Wars fans might not be all in their glory about Mandalorian and Grogu with numbers here on par with Solo: A Star Wars Story, rival studios aren’t crapping on it. Who the hell doesn’t want a 4-day $90M-plus opening at the Memorial Day box office in the post-Covid era? Furiosa, these bounty hunters are not.
As one talent rep told us heading into the weekend, “Sometimes, these movies make more in merchandise than the actual movie.” Star Wars is one of the top five toy sellers annually with over $1 billion in retail sales. Grogu toys, since the launch of the Disney+ series, count 13 million toys sold during their first two years of release.
The 4-day holiday weekend for all movies is coming at $209M which is -37% off last year’s record of $330.1M.
Inde Navarrette and Michael Johnston in ‘Obsession‘ (2026) (Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection)
Meanwhile, Focus Features and Blumhouse-Atomic Monster’s Obsession is looking to push the King of Pop out of second place with an amazing +16% hike in its 3-day for a near $20M second weekend and 4-day of $24.8M and 11-day cume of $55.1M. If those numbers stick, Obsession will be +18% ahead of Longlegs at the same point in time (ended its run at $74.3M stateside) but -17% behind Focus Features’ highest grossing horror pic of all-time, Nosferatu (which was juiced by a Christmas launch, finaling at $95.6M domestic). Definite recommend has increased to 74% from 70% last weekend. More women are showing up now at 51% versus 41% in the pic’s opening weekend, however guys like this battle of the sexes movie a little more, with a slightly higher definite recommend, 75% to 73% (still overall, awesome). Very strong across the board quads, which is a studio’s dream, with men over 25 at 27%, women under 25 at 26%, women over 25 at 25% and guys under 25 at 22%. The 18-34 bunch is massive at 75%. The 18-24 set has now outpaced the 25-34 set, 40% to 35%. Best grades are women under 25 at 91% followed by men over 25 at 90%. Is there an Obsession 2? Curry Barker mentioned on the press tour he’d be open to a TV series with a new wish every episode.
Michael still has moves around the globe, where he’s nearing $800M ($788.8M by EOD Monday) with fifth frame take of $18.5M over 3-days (excellent -29% hold), and $23.6M over four days. The running domestic take by end the end of the holiday will stand at $317.8M.
Weekend estimates:
- Mandalorian and Grogu (Dis) 4,300 theaters, Fri $33M 3-day $81M-$82M 4-day $91M-$94M/Wk 1
- Obsession (Foc) 2,655 (+40) theaters, Fri $6M 3-day $19.9M (+16%) 4-day $24.8M, Total $55.1M/Wk 2
- Michael (LG) 3,306 (-254) theaters, Fri $5M (-29%) 3-day $18.5M (-29%) 4-day $23.6M, Total $317.8M/Wk 5
- Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th) 3,300 (-530) theaters, Fri $3.2M 3-day $11.3M (-37%) 4-day $14.6M, Total $198.1M/Wk 4
- Sheep Detectives (AMZ) 3,207 (-347) theaters, Fri $2.1M (-14%) 3-day $8M (-16%) 4 day $11M Total $45.5M/Wk 3
- Passenger (Par) 2,534 theaters, Fri $3.5M 3-day $8.5M 4-day $10.2M/Wk 1
The $15M Walter Hamada produced horror pic has a B- CinemaScore, and alright 64% definite recommend from the PostTrak audience. By comparison, the previous 18Mhz production of Hamada’s, January’s Primate opened to $11.1M and finaled at $25.6M off a $21M production cost (pic all in globally earned $39M). Male leaning at 54% with 41% female. Biggest demo is 18-24 at 36% with the 18-34 demo showing up at 69%. Latino and Hispanic moviegoers are tied in attendance with Caucasians at 31% apiece followed by 22% Black and 10% Asian American. No PLFs here. Pic’s best areas are West, South Central, South, and East where close to 80% of the gross is coming from vs a norm of 75.4% for all other titles in the marketplace. AMC Burbank in California is the pic’s top grossing theater with $12K through Friday. The opening is where tracking pretty much spotted it, and heck, this horror pic can be grateful for that in an Obsession obsessed holiday frame. - Mortal Kombat II (NL) 2,726 (-808) theaters Fri $1.45M (-69%) 3-day $5.5M (-59%) 4-day $7.1M Total $73.6M/Wk 3
- I Love Boosters (Neon) 1,750 theaters, Fri $1.5M 3-day $3.9M 4-day $4.6M /Wk 1
CinemaScore audiences give the Boots Riley movie a B. The 4-day here is similar to the wide break of Riely’s Sorry to Bother You in its second frame of $4.2M. That summer 2018 arthouse pic topped out at $17.4M stateside. Mostly female here at 56% with Caucasians at 36%, Black moviegoers at 34%, Latino and Hispanic at 17%, and Asian American at 8%. Boosters is playing best on the coasts where 56% of the gross is coming from versus 43% of the other titles. The Grand Lake cinema in Oakland, CA is the pic’s top grossing locale with close to $30K. - Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Uni) 2,005 (-788) theaters Fri $700K (-34%), 3-day $2.6M (-42%) 4-day $3.3M Total $423.8M/Wk 8
- Project Hail Mary (Amz) 1,321 (-856) theaters Fri $617K (-44%) 3-day $2.4M (-41%) 4-day $3M, Total $339.9M/Wk 10
‘I Love Boosters’
Neon/Everett Collection
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Lucasfilm/Disney’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is on a journey similar to the 2018 Memorial Day pic Solo: A Star Wars Story.
Friday and previews is looking like $34M for the Jon Favreau-directed feature (Solo did $35.3M), which will translate to about $80M 3-day and $90M over four days at 4,300 theaters. Some rivals believe the Pedro Pascal movie has a shot at $100M, but don’t count your Jawas yet. Solo, as we told you, opened to $84.4M 3-day, $103M 4-day. The audience score on Rotten Tomatoes remains fixed at 88%.
Again, the difference between this Memorial Day and last year’s is that we don’t have two tentpole openers like a year ago WITH Lilo & Stitch (record holiday start of $182.6M) and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning ($79M). Lilo & Stitch was the anomaly, and without it, well Mandalorian and Grogu is like an above-average opening for a major studio release over the holiday; not unlike Final Reckoning.
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The saving grace for this net $165M production is international but also merchandise. Disney hopes that the Force is with it for a global debut of $160M.
Demos on Thursday night for Mandalorian and Grogu were 48% over 35, and 52% under 35. Dudes leading at 67%. The faithful who showed up Thursday night gave the movie a 71% definite recommend, which is very good for word of mouth. Men over 25 showed up at 48% (85% positive grade), women over 25 at 27% gave the Favreau film its best grade at 96%, followed by men under 25 at 19% (81% positive) with women under 25 the smallest demo at 6% (and a low 76% grade).
Second still belongs to the guy who is a lover, not a fighter, that being Lionsgate’s Michael at 3,306 theaters with about $5M today, a $17M–$20M fifth weekend, easing by 23%-35%, and estimated four-day of $21M-$25M and running cume of $317.2M by EOD Monday. Ya know what, the Antoine Fuqua-directed Michael Jackson biopic has to twirl past Oppenheimer at some point (final domestic $330M).
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Third is Focus Features’ Obsession with an amazing 3-day hold of -1% or $17M and 4-day of $21M. The Curry Barker-directed horror movie is officially a summer sleeper with a running 11-day cume by Monday of $51.3M. We’ll take it. Smart, brilliant dating by Focus Features Distribution Head Lisa Bunnell.
Fourth goes to the fourth weekend of 20th Century Studios/Disney’s The Devil Wears Prada 2 at 3,300 sites with a $3M Friday, $10M-$11M 3-day, -37% to -43%, and $13M-$14M 4-day. This will put the running cume on the high-end on Monday at $197.5M.
Fifth is looking like Amazon MGM Studios’ third weekend of Hugh Jackman comedy The Sheep Detectives with $2M today at 3,207 theaters, $7.5M-$9M for the 3-day, -8% to -20%, with anywhere from $10M-$11M for the 4-day and a running cume by Monday of $45.3M.
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Sixth is Paramount’s André Øvredal and 18Mhz horror pic Passenger with a $3M Friday/previews, $7.3M 3-day and $8.8M 4-day at 2,534 locations.
Neon’s I Love Boosters is at $1.5M today/previews, $4M 3-day, $5M for the Friday-Monday span at 1,750 sites.
UPDATED, AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu came in at $12M on the nose in Thursday previews.
In addition to 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the pic is comping to such 4-day openers and their previews as Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World ($12M previews, $100M opening last year) and 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($17.5M previews, $120.4M 4-day).
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André Øvredal’s Paramount horror pic Passenger starring Melissa Leo grossed $1.1M from Thursday paid previews across roughly 2,125 locations. The pic is expected to do $9M-$10M over 4 days. Critics are low on it at 46%, and audiences aren’t wowed at 50%. The R-rated movie’s blurb: A young couple witness a horrific accident that leaves the driver dead. They soon encounter a demonic stalker who’s impossible to outrun and follows them wherever they go.
Naomi Ackie, Keke Palmer and Poppy Liu, Taylour Paige in ‘I Love Boosters’ (2026)
Neon
Neon’s Boots Riley movie, I Love Boosters, did $430K in total previews, $360K of that number from yesterday at 1,310 theaters. The pic is expected to do in the high single digits over 4-days. No RT audience score, but critics love the Keke Palmer, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza Gonzalez, Naomi Ackie satirical comedy at 92% fresh.
The week’s top 5:
1) Michael (LG) 3,560 theaters, Wk $37.5M (-29%), Total $294.1M/Wk 4
2) Obsession (Focus) 2,615 theaters, Wk $30.3M/Wk 1
The Curry Barker-directed horror romance was No. 1 for a fourth straight day with $3.3M, ahead of Michael‘s $2.4M.
3) The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th) 3,830 theaters, Wk $25.6M (-54%), Total $183.5M/Wk 3
4) Mortal Kombat II (NL) 3,534 theaters, Wk $17.7M (-64%), Total $66.6M/Wk 2
5) The Sheep Detectives (AMZ) 3,554 theaters, Wk $14.1M (-31%), Total $34.5M/Wk 2
EXCLUSIVE: Lucasfilm/Disney’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is pulling in around $12 million in North American Thursday night previews. It could be slightly lighter when the sun comes up in L.A. Shows began Thursday at 2 p.m.
That preview figure is slightly less than the Thursday cash made by 2018’s origin story Solo: A Star Wars Story, which was $14.1M. That turned into an $84.4M three-day and $103M four-day Memorial Day opening, not considered a starry start at all for the George Lucas-born, Disney-owned franchise.
Since its acquisition of Lucasfilm, Disney has hit it out of the park with 2015’s Star Wars, Episode VII: The Force Awakens, which at point charted the highest opening at the domestic box office ever with $247.9M before Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame came along in 2018 and 2019, respectively. In addition, Disney did spectacular with the 2016 Episode 4 prequel Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $155M stateside. Mandalorian and Grogu in pre-weekend tracking is hoping to clear $80M-$100M over the four days.
The Jon Favreau-directed movie is playing at 4,300 theaters, including 425 Imax, with the full suite of PLF, 4DX, 3D and ScreenX. Presales were at $25M on Tuesday, ahead of Project Hail Mary (which opened to an $80.5M 3-day).
The wait-and-see of it all with the PG-13 Mandalorian and Grogu is whether the movie expands to families on Saturday and Sunday. At every step of the way in the marketing campaign, Disney has been targeting them, emphasizing the cute-cute of Grogu, i.e., that saccharine Super Bowl commercial where Pedro Pascal’s tough dude and Baby Yoda are in a sleigh, dashing through the snow. At the same time, they’ve tried to speak to the faithful with images of Empire Strikes Back‘s snowy AT-AT scenes and wrestler Rotta the Hutt.
On the positive side, the Rotten Tomatoes audience score for Mandalorian and Grogu is higher than Solo: A Star Wars Story, 88%-63% (realize Thursday night fans are far more gentle in reactions than non-core Star Wars audiences will be). On the downside, critics are a bit more sour on Mandalorian and Grogu than Solo, 61% fresh to 69%.
Last year, Disney led the Memorial Day box office to an all-time record with $326.7M for all movies, and the best opening the holiday has ever seen, with the live-action take of Lilo & Stitch with its $182.6M 4-day in the U.S. and Canada.
Shoutout to Focus Features’ Obsession, which has been ruling the box office in its weekdays, beating Michael on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The Curry Barker-directed romance horror pic inched out Michael on Tuesday with $3.6M.
Through Wednesday, Obsession was up to $27M at the domestic B.O. Look for a great hold on the Blumhouse co-branded pic heading into the holiday.
